Capital Daily ‘Takaichinomics’ and Japan’s financial markets Japan’s new Prime Minister is a strong supporter of the ‘Abenomics’ reforms that had a big effect on the country’s financial markets a bit over a decade ago. But we think they – especially JGBs and... 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Dollar recovery only part of the story for EM FX After a relatively good run, we think EM currencies will generally depreciate over the coming quarters as the US dollar recovers. Heavily managed currencies in high-inflation economies like the... 21st October 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s high-stake election, BRL under pressure Comments from US President Trump this week suggest the financial support for Argentina will be contingent on Milei doing well in the mid-terms later this month. A strong showing for Milei's party... 17th October 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Trade war redux & regional bank wobbles hit the dollar The dollar has fallen back a bit this week amid renewed US-China trade tensions and, over the past day or two, jitters around US regional banks. Risk sentiment has taken a turn for the worse and... 17th October 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Trade war flashpoints, PBOC holds renminbi steady The recent escalation in US-China trade tensions seems to have resulted in an impasse, with both sides looking to the other to initiate deescalation. For now, the Xi-Trump meeting at the APEC summit... 17th October 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil import conundrum, RBI squeezes short-sellers President Trump's comments this week that Prime Minister Modi has pledged to stop buying oil from Russia have been denied by India's Ministry Of External Affairs. The latest data show that Russia's... 17th October 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Conditions for carry trade set to turn less favourable. We think after a period of sustained outperformance, total returns in high-yielding EM currencies relative to funding currencies will be weaker in the next couple of years. In particular, we forecast... 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2025) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM growth has been resilient to US import tariffs, but headwinds from fiscal tightening... 16th October 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The implications of Japan’s political turmoil for its markets We don’t think the political drama in Japan will be a drag on the country’s bond and stock markets and may, in the near term, even give them a boost. 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Argentine peso: what to expect after the mid-terms Despite denials from policymakers, we think that Argentina’s exchange rate regime in its current form is unsustainable and that there will be a change after the mid-term elections later this month. We... 14th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US-China re-escalation fallout: two key lessons Moves in the US dollar and global equities since last week give an indication of how renewed US-China tensions, should they persist, would affect key financial markets. 13th October 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebounds; blast from the past for yen & Argentina While President Trump’s return to the trade war path this afternoon has led to a drop in the dollar, it has risen, on net, this week – despite (or perhaps because of) the absence of most US economic... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s job market, Argentina’s bailout, Peru’s crisis The announcement that the US Treasury purchased Argentine peso assets has provided a boost to Argentina’s financial markets. It's unclear what the US will demand in exchange, but it could include the... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal uncertainty adds to case for BoJ inaction Sanae Takaichi won Saturday’s LDP leadership elections but is struggling to gather enough support in parliament to become PM as long-standing partner Komeito has threatened to abandon the coalition... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We’re now less upbeat on the yen, more on the TOPIX We now think the yen will appreciate a bit more slowly against the US dollar than we’d previously forecast, but we’re revising up our projections for Japan’s stock market. 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
