China Economics Focus China's economic roadmap for 2025 The GDP target announced for 2025 suggests that policymakers are hoping to achieve steady growth this year, but we don’t think that the policy agenda set out today at the National People’s Congress... 5th March 2025 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily China’s NPC and the fate of its equity market We don’t see anything in the outcomes of China’s NPC meetings to abandon our upbeat near-term view on the country’s stock market. 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Trade war 2.0: sea change or bump in the road? President Trump’s decision to follow through with tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, combined with further weak economic data in the US, has resulted in a further flight to safety across financial... 4th March 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: A closer look at Trump tariff risks and currencies The greenback has rebounded this week as market participants have started to take President Trump’s continued tariff threats a bit more seriously and risk sentiment has soured. Even so, we think that... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb. 25) We expect fiscal stimulus to keep China’s economy growing at pace over the first half of this year. But as fiscal support fades and US tariffs start to drag on exports, we think growth will start to... 28th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily The unravelling of US exceptionalism This week’s pull-back in the US stock market and the unravelling of US exceptionalism in equities since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January have been driven by growing concerns... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: What to watch at the NPC The annual meeting of China’s parliament will open on Wednesday with the delivery of the Work Report and annual budget. While the GDP growth target usually receives the most attention, we don't think... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Rising US tariffs to test China’s exchange rate policy With US tariffs now escalating, the key question is whether the People’s Bank (PBOC) will allow the exchange rate to adjust in response. We think it ultimately will, just as it did during the first... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Is the “Trump trade” already over? Notwithstanding recent setbacks, we continue to think that this year will see a major rally in US equity markets, higher Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar. 27th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily How long will the 2017 redux last for the US dollar? The greenback has struggled over the past month or so, since President Trump took office. However, we think that a sustained fall in the dollar like that at the start of his first term remains... 26th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: next phase of stabilisation plan more difficult Argentina’s President Javier Milei has pledged to remove capital controls but we think that a major change in Argentina’s exchange rate setting before the mid-term elections in October is unlikely... 26th February 2025 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (February 2025) India’s economy is in the midst of a softer patch which we think will continue for a few more quarters. Headline CPI inflation is now within touching distance of the Reserve Bank’s 4% target and looks... 26th February 2025 · 1 min read
Event China Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environment 1741161600 This year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is taking place against a difficult backdrop for China’s economy; stimulus efforts have so far had only a fleeting impact on activ
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD: The Trump Trade’s worst victims? The Australian and New Zealand dollars have fared worse than almost every other currency over the past few months. We think they will continue to do so. 25th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What Germany’s election means for markets We think the new German government won’t prop up the country’s economy much. That’s a reason why we expect to see lower long-term Bund yields, a weaker euro and a poor showing from German equities... 24th February 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: US dollar going nowhere fast, but the yen is on the move Despite a continued steady stream of headlines out of the Trump administration, currency markets have remained remarkably calm this week. The dollar has stabilised today but remains around its lowest... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
