Capital Daily NZD may have hit its low, but we see downside elsewhere The RBNZ today dealt the New Zealand dollar another blow, but we think it will recover before long and that the Australian dollar will stop falling. The same can’t be said, though, for the European... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro more likely to fall than rise from here The euro has had a stellar year so far, holding onto most of the gains that it made following Germany’s fiscal announcement in March and the US tariff shock in April. But we think it is more likely to... 7th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand’s underperformance won’t last The prolonged underperformance of New Zealand’s economy has contributed to the Kiwi dollar being the worst-performing G10 currency last month, even as the Australian dollar was the best-performer... 7th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Future looks bright for Japan’s stock market even if yen rebounds The slump in the yen that accompanied Sanae Takaichi’s unexpected victory in Saturday’s LDP leadership election helps to explain why the stock market in Japan soared on Monday. But there are other... 6th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook We don’t think the AI boom in equities is over We don’t think the AI boom in equities has run its course, despite how far it has already come. We therefore expect the US stock market, in particular, to charge ahead over the rest of this year and... 6th October 2025 · 28 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Shutdown stasis looms for the dollar The dollar has weakened a little this week on the back of some softer US employment and activity data. The US government shutdown does not appear to have made much impact, consistent with previous... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria reforms, Ghana and Kenya inflation President Tinubu used his Independence Day address this week to talk up recent improvements in GDP growth and the balance of payments position. He also celebrated the jump in tax revenue this year... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Global renminbi usage rising, but only slowly Chinese officials have been trying to boost global usage of the renminbi for over two decades. Some progress has been made, with new BIS data placing the currency’s share in global FX turnover at a... 2nd October 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Softening labour market bigger worry than US shutdown History suggests the US government shutdown is unlikely to make much impact on financial markets even if it drags on for some time. The bigger issue is the continued softening of the US labour market... 1st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 25) Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to... 30th September 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily G10 FX divergence may be a sign of things to come While major developed-market currencies have mostly headed in the same direction against the US dollar this year, that’s come to a halt this month. We think fortunes will continue to diverge, to some... 30th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Focus The threats from US reliance on foreign financial flows This Focus examines the large financial inflows to the US that have accompanied the country’s persistent current account deficit. It argues that those inflows face several growing threats which risk... 29th September 2025 · 20 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar enjoys a broad rally The US dollar is on track to end the week stronger against most other major currencies thanks largely to investors further paring back their expectations for Fed rate cuts. Although political... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Trump bails out Milei, and meets with Lula next week The big news out of Latin America this week was the US government’s announcement that it would “do what is needed” to support Argentina. Unsurprisingly, local markets reacted positively. It might give... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-In: Europe Outlook – Why the ECB could cut rates in 2026 2nd October 2025, 3:00PM BST The ECB insists interest rates are "in a good place", but it's a view which we think will shift in the coming year.
