Asset Allocation Update

EUR/USD strength is built on shaky economic assumptions

While the interest-rate-differential-defying strength of EUR/USD may be partly explained by increased currency hedging, it also reflects shifting expectations for economic growth. We think those will...

14th July 2025 · 4 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar rebound has further to run despite Tariff Man

The US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger as President Trump continues to ratchet up his tariff threats again and US interest rate expectations edge higher. As widely expected, the 9th July...

11th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: South Africa’s tariff, US courting West Africa

South Africa was once again threatened with a 30% reciprocal US tariff, but we worry its testy US relationship means the risk of higher tariffs has not gone away – particularly in light of Brazil’s...

11th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Event

Asia Drop-In: Japan’s leadership turmoil – economic and market implications

15th October 2025, 9:00AM BST

Japan’s search for a new prime minister has upended its political landscape – and the outcome will shape the country’s economic and market outlook.

Event

EM Drop-In: Egypt’s economic rebound – How secure is this recovery?

19th November 2025, 10:00AM GMT

Faster growth, lower inflation, easing rates and a stronger currency – the signs point to Egypt pulling back from the brink. But has enough been done to lock in these gains?

Event

India Drop-In: Budget, RBI & the road ahead

28th January 2026, 9:00AM GMT

2025 was another stellar year for India's economy. But with headwinds building in 2026, will policymakers need to step up their game?

Event

UK Drop-In: Bank of England March meeting preview – Rate cuts after the energy shock

12th March 2026, 3:00PM GMT

Uncertainty around the duration of the conflict in the Middle East is keeping energy prices near multi-year highs and threatening expectations that the Bank of England will continue cutting rates t

Event

Japan Drop-In: Is a BOJ rate hike coming sooner? Insights after the March meeting

19th March 2026, 8:00AM GMT

The Bank of Japan faces a very different challenge from most of its global peers.

Event

Markets Drop-In: Asset Allocation in 2026 – Why we don’t think the AI equities boom is over

15th October 2025, 3:00PM BST

Our latest Asset Allocation Outlook explains why we remain far above consensus on the S&P 500 in 2026 – and why other tech-heavy equity markets may not be far behind. 

Event

Japan Drop-In: Takaichi’s election gamble – Fiscal risks, market consequences

9th February 2026, 8:00AM GMT

Our Japan economists were online the day after the election to analyse the results, explore what they mean for Japan’s fiscal and monetary balance, and discuss the implications for Ja

Event

Markets Drop-In: The dollar outlook – economics vs politics and our 2026 forecasts

28th January 2026, 1:00PM GMT

What has driven the dollar’s recent sharp fall? Are dedollarisation fears back in charge amid heightened political uncertainty? What support will the US macro narrative lend the currency?

Event

Drop-In: Global Economic and Market Outlook – Pricing the energy shock

26th March 2026, 3:00PM GMT

The surge in energy prices that has accompanied fresh fighting in the Middle East challenges assumptions around global growth, inflation and central bank policy across both developed

Bonds & Equities

Growth and trade risks to weigh on Mexican markets

We think the outperformance of Mexican assets and the peso since “Liberation Day”, owing to large tariff exemptions for exports to the US, has largely run its course. Instead, we think the weak...

11th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey back on track ... but risks loom large

The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets earlier this year proved to be a blip, and we think the conditions are in place for the central bank to resume its easing cycle this month. But bringing...

10th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Markets are (probably) right to ignore Trump’s latest tariff flip-flop

Market participants have largely shrugged off President Trump’s latest set of threats to raise tariffs on a range of countries, focusing on the fact that today’s “deadline” for re-imposing the...

8th July 2025 · 4 mins read