Capital Daily Payrolls resurgence strengthens the case for a dollar rebound The sharp rebound in US non-farm payrolls in August means that FOMC rate hikes may come sooner rather than later. In turn, that points to a rebound in the US dollar and further upwards pressure on US... 4th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The threat from bonds to equities We doubt the Treasury market will be the straw that breaks the US stock market’s back. Admittedly, higher government bond yields started to weigh on equities there earlier this week. But the S&P 500... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japanese firms continue to weather energy shock The Japanese economy has continued to shrug off the energy shock. Corporate profit margins rose to a record high in Q2, while industrial production held up well in July as supply shortages eased. That... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the yen’s latest rebound The yen’s sharp rebound over the past couple of days may not last any longer than similar rallies in recent years. But a more proactive approach, which the Bank of Japan may now (finally) be adopting... 3rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Gilts are down but not out Higher energy prices alongside renewed fiscal concerns have pushed Gilt yields to multi-decade highs, but we continue to think they will fall back over the next year or so. We’ll be discussing the... 3rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The global bond rout and the dollar Despite falling back a bit today, the dollar generally seems to have benefitted from the recent rout in bonds. Its fortunes could change eventually, though, after the bubble in AI bursts. 2nd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: risk of currency, sovereign debt crises growing Tunisia’s fragile external position has deteriorated further since the onset of the Iran war and the dinar appears increasingly overvalued. Officials have tightened access to foreign currency in a bid... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update How could Japan respond to soaring bond yields? The recent increase in JGB yields has been driven by global rather than domestic factors and there are no signs that it is creating financial stress. The BoJ will accelerate its tightening cycle to... 1st September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Flattening yield curves, CAPE nears dotcom extremes We don’t expect lasting relief for short-dated Treasuries, although we expect those in Europe to fare better over time. Meanwhile, our base case remains that the equity market has further to rise... 31st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Reassurance from Warsh gives the dollar a boost Fed Chair Warsh’s much-anticipated keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium has allayed some of the confusion caused by his post-FOMC remarks a month ago. More clarity around his approach to both... 28th August 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC leans against RMB gains, sanction risks limited The premium between the renminbi spot rate and the PBOC’s daily fix is now at its largest in over a decade, a sign that the central bank is becoming more resistant to further appreciation. The PBOC is... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed sharply in July, reflecting disruptions to construction and industry from typhoons as well as the ongoing drag from weak fiscal spending. But... 28th August 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Concentrated earnings probably mean concentrated returns Although S&P 500 earnings have become even more dominated by a handful of companies, that hasn’t consistently translated into larger companies outperforming smaller ones lately. We expect big-tech... 27th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Will term premia plunge again when the AI bubble bursts? Although there are many reasons to expect recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury term premium to persist, they could collectively be more than outweighed for a while by a bursting of the... 26th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update AI rally and oil prices to drive EM asset divergence While local-currency bonds in parts of LatAm and EM Europe may outperform those in Asia if oil prices fall, equities in those regions are likely to continue to lag their Asian peers as the AI rally... 26th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Focus How hedge funds are shaking up sovereign bond markets The increased footprint of hedge funds in sovereign bond markets is one reason why these markets will remain susceptible to frequent bouts of volatility. This Focus examines, more broadly, the risks... 26th August 2026 · 19 mins read
