Capital Daily Corporate bonds might keep struggling a bit Despite bouncing back a bit in recent days, the spreads of corporate bonds remain near their lowest levels in two years, making them vulnerable to a deterioration in economic conditions. 8th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We see 2024 ending much better than it started for asset markets Although bonds and equities have started the year on the back foot, which may continue in the near term, we think they’ll fare better over the year as a whole. We project especially large gains for... 8th January 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap USD strikes back as goldilocks hopes take a hit The dollar’s strong start to 2024 has partly reversed today as the surprisingly weak US ISM non-manufacturing survey has more than offset another robust US non-farm payrolls report. Even so, the... 5th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of mixed messages on the US labour market Today’s plunge in the employment component of the US ISM services survey more than took the shine off a slightly stronger than expected US Employment Report. In doing so, it appears to have called at... 5th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japanese stocks will continue to underperform As we had anticipated, the outperformance of the Topix against the S&P 500 has unraveled as the yen has strengthened against the dollar. And with Japanese manufacturing losing ground abroad and... 5th January 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of valuations in currency markets While we estimate the US dollar remains only somewhat above “fair value”, the valuations of some other major currencies are at extreme levels. For these currencies – notably the Mexican peso and Czech... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily 2024 could be a better year for the yen than the renminbi We expect the Japanese yen to make larger gains this year than the Chinese renminbi. 4th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Chinese equities may keep trailing Indian ones While equities in China might make up some lost ground over the next few months relative to those in India, we suspect they’ll underperform over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we are... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of markets’ rocky start to 2024 With most major bond and equity markets on track for a second down day to start the new year, it’s fair to say that financial markets have started 2024 with something of a mild hangover. While reading... 3rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Equities may outshine bond markets in 2024 Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 28th December 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap One rangebound year in currency markets gives way to another? The final week ahead of the holiday period is drawing to an end with the US dollar somewhat weaker across the board. Unlike last year, the BoJ’s final policy meeting proved a(nother) damp squib, with... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are the bears finally coming for the Goldilocks trade? We think “risky” assets could struggle relative to “safe” ones in the near term if, as we expect, growth disappoints, although we still think they’ll outperform over next year as a whole. Note: The... 21st December 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Five key questions for currency markets in 2024 As the year draws to a close, this Update sets out our answers to five of the most commonly asked questions about currency markets for the coming year. In short, we expect another year of muddling... 20th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily “Growth” may keep outperforming “value” next year While the valuation gap between “growth” and “value” factors in the US is high by past standards, we suspect that “growth” will generally keep outperforming in the next year or two. 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How DM bonds may weather JGB market normalisation We think the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield will rise over 2024 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) lifts its policy rate early next year and constraints on the JGB market ease. And while that... 20th December 2023 · 5 mins read