Global Markets Focus Can EM financial market outperformance continue? After a broad‑based rally in Emerging Markets (EM) assets since the beginning of last year, we think that the scope for outsized returns is now limited to only a few corners of the market. We expect... 12th February 2026 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily Is it time for the S&P 500’s non-tech sectors to shine? There are positive signs for earnings outside of the “tech” sectors of the US stock market, which might help them continue to fare well. But we still think tech will do better over the rest of 2026. 12th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Robust US payrolls point to higher Treasury yields The blockbuster US non-farm payrolls report released earlier today strengthens the case for higher US Treasury yields and a rebound in the dollar over the coming months. 11th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (February 2026) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades... 11th February 2026 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What the “Starmer drama” means for Gilts and Sterling Keir Starmer appears to have fended off the latest challenge to his leadership, but his premiership hangs by a thread. This Update examines what previous political episodes can tell us about what his... 11th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Norway no canary in the European sovereign bond coal mine Today’s slump in government bonds in Norway isn’t likely to set the tone for the rest of Europe. 10th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lower oil prices to cause Saudi bond spreads to widen If oil prices fall back as we expect, Saudi Arabia’s government is likely to run large budget deficits and see a sharper rise in the public debt ratio than is widely anticipated. The strength of the... 10th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Focus Why we still believe in the AI rally, and the S&P 500 We think the tech-led rally in the S&P 500 will resume, and that 2026 will be a good year for the index despite its rocky start and the many threats facing it. This Equities Focus explains why. 10th February 2026 · 17 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to be fairly sluggish in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide only a temporary and fairly modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise... 9th February 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s current account deficit will continue to narrow The improvement in Egypt’s external competitiveness since the policy shift two years ago has supported a narrowing of the current account deficit and we think this has further to run, especially if... 9th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Takaichi’s triumph, UK drama, US data: what it means for markets Calm may be on the way for Japan’s markets now the election is out of the way: we don’t expect a further sell-off in JGBs and forecast a stronger yen. But renewed political turmoil in the UK might be... 9th February 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Three scenarios for the UK economy and markets if Starmer/Reeves are replaced This note republishes our three scenarios for the economy and the financial markets should Keir Starmer and/or Rachel Reeves be replaced as Prime Minister and Chancellor. In each scenario, gilt yields... 8th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Three key questions on the equity market wobble While the US stock market has bounced back today, the ongoing struggles of the previously ascendant tech firms in the wake of another poorly received set of earnings reports raises several tricky... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Weighing up the implications of today’s MPC and ECB meetings A dovish UK MPC meeting prompted big falls in both short-dated Gilt yields and sterling today, whereas there wasn’t so much reaction in the markets to the ECB’s gathering. We think there is scope for... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update How much of a buffer do government assets provide? Japan’s government holds more financial assets than governments elsewhere. While the value of the government’s domestic asset holdings could plunge during a crisis, a large share is invested overseas... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Struggling software sector won’t burst this bubble We don't think the falls suffered by software stocks in recent days are indicative of waning enthusiasm for AI. We think investors will continue to judge that the benefits accruing from AI will... 4th February 2026 · 4 mins read
