China Economics Weekly PBOC pushes back against RMB undervaluation claims The PBOC has attempted to set the record straight on the nature of its FX intervention and refute claims that currency depreciation is driving China’s soaring trade surplus. While we agree that a... 9th October 2026 · 7 mins read
China Scenarios China Economic Scenarios - Q4 2026 China Scenarios brings together Capital Economics’ best-in-class research and proprietary data on China with Fathom’s world-leading scenario modelling and proprietary data. It contains six thematic... 9th October 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly JGB sell-off may have run its course The 10-year JGB yield has levelled off over the last couple of weeks even as yields elsewhere have surged to multi-year highs. While our fiscal trackers suggest that growth in government spending has... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Flat yield curves are here to stay We don’t expect most major government yield curves to steepen much further in the medium term, despite the apparent recent rise in term premia. 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s upcoming budget will test the bond rally Hungary’s government will announce its long-awaited fiscal review this month, and we expect a budget deficit projection around 5.5% of GDP for 2027, down from a shortfall of more than 7.0% this year... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How the yen found its feet amid the bond sell-off The yen has, surprisingly, been one of the best performers this year amid the rise in bond yields; we think it will fare even better once they fall back. 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What the bond sell-off means for monetary policy Rising bond yields are tightening financial conditions which, if sustained, will weigh on economic activity. This has given rise to suggestions that tighter conditions are doing central banks’ job for... 7th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market turmoil just the latest blow for French stocks Turmoil in France’s bond market has added more pain to an already miserable year for equities there, and we doubt a big recovery is likely anytime soon. 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (October 2026) The euro-zone economy is growing at a steady pace. While Spain is still the clear outperformer among the larger countries, Germany has finally returned to growth, but France has stalled. Business... 7th October 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Increasingly narrow equity rally rings alarm bells The strong performance of the IT sector has helped to drag the S&P 500 index to a new all-time high today. But this stock market rally looks narrow even by recent standards – the average firm in the... 6th October 2026 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Focus How undervalued is the renminbi? Even though the renminbi is at its strongest level against the US dollar since 2022, in real trade-weighted terms it remains close to its weakest in more than a decade. In our assessment, it is... 6th October 2026 · 19 mins read
Bonds & Equities What the US midterms might mean for markets The main risks for financial markets from the midterms are a contested election outcome, emboldened Democrats pushing for Trump’s impeachment, and concerns about a leftward shift by the Democratic... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Red flags flying in the bond market? The recent steepening of the yield curve is arguably a cause for concern, but our base case remains that long-dated yields will fall back. 5th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Equities need a bond rally more than it seems The surge in Treasury yields has put equities under more pressure than headline returns may suggest. If yields remain high much longer or rise further, more serious cracks may soon emerge in the stock... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA bond sell-off, Zambia monetary easing now over South Africa has not been immune to the global bond sell-off, but yields on local currency government debt remain low by post-pandemic standards, and we believe improving fiscal fundamentals and SARB... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s bond sell-off has further to run This week’s sharp sell-off in French government bonds suggests that investors have woken up to the severity of country’s public debt problem. Even if things calm down a bit in the coming weeks, which... 2nd October 2026 · 6 mins read
