Capital Daily Tech stocks versus oil, bonds versus central banks Tech stocks have continued to power ahead despite renewed concerns around the war, but we don’t think they’re completely immune to it. Meanwhile, central bank inaction could be a threat to bond... 5th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The government’s decision to cap gasoline prices means that inflation won’t rise far above the BoJ’s... 5th May 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The jury remains out on the AI CapEx splurge The mixed reaction to this week’s earnings releases from four US hyperscalers was a reminder of how sensitive investors have become to the firms’ plans for capital spending (CapEx), given the huge... 1st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Policymakers do their part, but oil prices still driving bond markets Policymakers talking (and, in Japan, acting) tough may help to shore up market confidence and buy time until a resolution to the crisis in the Gulf materialises. But financial markets remain in large... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy had a strong start to the year, with a surge in exports boosting GDP growth in Q1. Higher global oil prices should provide a tailwind to China’s... 29th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Two threats to bonds that aren’t rate hikes or fiscal crises With the major central banks lining up to talk tough on inflation this week, and investors on edge about fiscal problems in many places, we think there are some other growing medium-term risks facing... 29th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent surge in semiconductors? This month’s surge in semiconductor share indices mainly seems to reflect signs of growing demand for CPUs used for AI inference and a related need for more high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. 28th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows suggests that outflows eased over the course of this month, helped by the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Perhaps more importantly, EM external balance sheets look... 28th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Three questions for markets, two months into the crisis With disruptions to global energy markets now having lasted two months this Update asks, and answers, three key questions about how financial markets have fared so far. First, why have equities... 28th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Risk rally on borrowed time while the Strait remains closed If the diplomatic and military stalemate between the US and Iran continues, and the Strait of Hormuz remain largely closed, policymakers and market participants will find it increasingly difficult to... 27th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Broad-based small cap outperformance may continue A storming rally in the tech sector has obscured the fact that the average US small cap has markedly beaten the average large cap over recent weeks. We think this trend has a bit further to run. 24th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rethinking Hungary’s path to the euro The Tisza government has made euro accession a key part of its economic plans. Its goal of being ready to enter by 2030 looks optimistic given that Hungary is some way away from meeting the Maastricht... 23rd April 2026 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Equity-dollar correlation will remain strong until the war is over The inverse relationship between risky assets and the US dollar has been unusually strong over the past couple of months. That is likely to continue as long as energy supply risks remain the key... 23rd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Why Treasuries are unlikely to regain a lot more ground The main reason why the yields of long-dated Treasuries haven’t dropped all the way back to their levels before the start of the Iran war is a major reassessment of the prospects for Fed policy. And... 22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about private credit and macro risk We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to discuss private credit and the risks to the macroeconomy and financial markets. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to some of the... 22nd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Vaca Muerta fuels energy turnaround The surge in shale oil and gas production in the Vaca Muerta field over the past few years has turned Argentina from a net energy importer into an exporter, meaning that – unlike during previous... 22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
