Emerging Markets Economics Update Three market-moving EM elections to watch this year Elections in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary have the greatest potential to deliver large financial market moves this year. A shift towards more investor-friendly policymaking and improved fiscal... 28th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The macro implications of a weaker dollar Our base case is that the recent bout of weakness in the US dollar will reverse. If it remains at its current level, the direct macro impact is likely to be small for most countries, especially... 28th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update MSCI threat adds to Indonesia’s woes The slump in Indonesia’s stock market today in the wake of a threat by MSCI to downgrade the country to “frontier market” status is the latest in a long list of issues that investors are grappling... 28th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB respond to the rising euro? The euro’s recent appreciation will reduce euro-zone inflation by a trivial amount, so for now the ECB is likely to do nothing to prevent it other than perhaps the mildest form of verbal intervention... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hike rates in February and May The ongoing persistence in underlying inflation will persuade the Reserve Bank of Australia to reverse course on rate cuts. We expect the Bank to raise rates by 25bp at its meeting next week, followed... 28th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Four key points on Bessent’s intervention gambit As the dollar continues to drop in the wake of intervention chatter, here are four key takeaways from an extraordinary few days. 27th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 26) Sub-Saharan Africa is entering one of its best periods of growth since the 2010s, propelled by better terms of trade, low inflation and loose monetary policy. Our forecasts for most countries –... 27th January 2026 · 0 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the dollar rout Our view is that most fundamental factors still point to a stronger dollar in 2026. But renewed uncertainty around the Trump administration’s approach to US economic and foreign policy threatens to... 26th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Plenty to worry markets even if the Fed is uneventful It looks set to be a fairly quiet Fed meeting this week as far as markets are concerned, and perhaps even a quiet year on the policy front despite the background noise. But there are plenty of other... 26th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What could the BoJ do to help the JGB market? While today’s BoJ meeting was fairly uneventful, with no big impact on Japanese financial markets besides some significant volatility in the yen during Governor Ueda’s press conference, that may not... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update What share issuance can tell us about the AI bubble One warning sign that a bubble is close to bursting is high and rising gross equity issuance; that was a feature, for example, during the dotcom bubble and the “non-profitable tech” bubble in 2020-21... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ reluctant to cap government bond yields The Bank of Japan unveiled today that it had discussed tweaking the planned reduction in its bond purchase plan in response to the huge sell-off triggered by PM Takaichi’s campaign pledge to suspend... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2026) So far at least, there’s little sign that the geopolitical flare-ups this year have affected capital inflows to emerging markets. Indeed, inflows have picked up sharply in the last few weeks. Even if... 22nd January 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Are US markets too complacent about political risk? Although our base case is that the recovery in US markets will broadly continue, risk premia remain narrow and the chance of a larger repricing is probably high. 22nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How big is the threat to global markets from JGBs? Although further weakness in JGBs might have implications for financial markets outside Japan, we doubt the global fallout would be large for four reasons. 21st January 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily No Greenland news is good news for markets US-Europe tensions over Greenland, and renewed US policy uncertainty more broadly, has led to speculation of a return of the “sell America” narrative that dominated financial markets in the first half... 21st January 2026 · 5 mins read
