Chief Economist's Note Two cheers for Germany’s fiscal reform The agreement by Germany’s likely next coalition partners to reform the country’s strict fiscal rules is both historic and positive: historic because it reflects a shift in attitudes within Europe’s... 10th March 2025
Capital Daily What to make of the post-payroll roundtrip in US markets While heightened uncertainty and worries about the US economy may keep investors on their toes for a while yet, we think the risk-on mood in markets will come back before the end of the year. 7th March 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Taking stock of the euro’s epic rally The dollar has suffered one of its largest weekly falls on record in the wake of President Trump’s latest tariff flip-flop, continued jitters around the health of the US economy and, most importantly... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Economic Weekly: The rand's shaky outlook, Angola's latest Article IV The rand may have rallied this week on the news that South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed in 2024, but we think worse terms of trade, GNU instability and the associated risks in the public... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Higher Bund yields probably here to stay The shift in the ECB’s tone today to acknowledge the increased uncertainty surrounding the outlook has pushed euro-zone bond yields up slightly, extending their surge over the past few days. Given... 6th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Some new market forecasts for a changing world The unravelling of US exceptionalism in stock markets since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January has been mainly driven by concerns about the US’ dominance of AI and the relative... 6th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (March 2025) The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 2.75% to 2.50% today came alongside new language which shows that policymakers are becoming less certain about the future path of interest rates. Looser... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update German yields, stocks, and the euro surge – what next? In this Update, we put into context the recent surges in Bund yields, German equities, and the euro that have been triggered by expectations of a significant loosening of fiscal policy in Europe’s... 6th March 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Focus China's economic roadmap for 2025 The GDP target announced for 2025 suggests that policymakers are hoping to achieve steady growth this year, but we don’t think that the policy agenda set out today at the National People’s Congress... 5th March 2025 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily China’s NPC and the fate of its equity market We don’t see anything in the outcomes of China’s NPC meetings to abandon our upbeat near-term view on the country’s stock market. 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Trade war 2.0: sea change or bump in the road? President Trump’s decision to follow through with tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, combined with further weak economic data in the US, has resulted in a further flight to safety across financial... 4th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Market impact of more defence spending in Europe While the prospect of more defence spending in Europe is pushing up government bond yields there, we still expect Bund yields to fall back. Meanwhile, even if defence stocks in Europe kept outpacing... 3rd March 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: A closer look at Trump tariff risks and currencies The greenback has rebounded this week as market participants have started to take President Trump’s continued tariff threats a bit more seriously and risk sentiment has soured. Even so, we think that... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The unravelling of US exceptionalism This week’s pull-back in the US stock market and the unravelling of US exceptionalism in equities since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January have been driven by growing concerns... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb. 25) We expect fiscal stimulus to keep China’s economy growing at pace over the first half of this year. But as fiscal support fades and US tariffs start to drag on exports, we think growth will start to... 28th February 2025 · 0 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: What to watch at the NPC The annual meeting of China’s parliament will open on Wednesday with the delivery of the Work Report and annual budget. While the GDP growth target usually receives the most attention, we don't think... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
