Latin America Economics Update Argentina & the IMF: 23rd time lucky? Argentina’s latest IMF programme and the move to partially dismantle some capital controls and liberalise the exchange rate suggests policymakers are moving more quickly than we’d anticipated to... 14th April 2025 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap USD: How to lose a safe haven status in 10 days? After another tumultuous week across financial markets, the dollar is on track for one of its worst weeks on record. At this point, the main question for the dollar is no longer what the direct... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Safe haven flows to force SNB into action With the Swiss currency having experienced its largest two-week appreciation since the “Frankenshock” in 2015, the SNB may already have started selling francs in the FX market. We have a 25bp cut... 11th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, oil prices, Kenya rates The direct blow to African economies from the tariffs imposed by the US should be limited, but the indirect hit will be larger if global growth weakens and financial spillovers materialise. And while... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: The fallout from tariff mayhem in EZ markets This week’s historic changes in US trade policy and the associated market fallout point in the direction of a weaker euro-zone economy, lower inflation and looser monetary policy. While bond spreads... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s IMF deal #23, tariff relief, Hegseth in Panama One key feature of Argentina's latest IMF deal – which the Fund's Board is set to vote on today – is likely to be a shift towards a more flexible exchange rate and an easing of capital controls. While... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Tariff fallout won’t send the RBA into panic mode With concerns growing that Trump's trade war won't leave Australia unscathed, investors now expect the RBA to cut rates by 125bp across its easing cycle. The rout in financial markets also appears to... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Trump and Africa: the story so far The direct trade impact of US import tariffs on Africa is likely to be limited, but there could be more harmful indirect effects via weaker growth in other key trading partners, lower commodity prices... 10th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Rebound in 10-year JGB yield has much further to run The trade war has merely delayed rather than scuppered further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our forecast that the 10-year JGB yield will rise to 1.75% by year... 10th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Stock market’s recovery hasn’t left it fully healed US President Trump’s decision to pause the implementation of many of his previously announced tariffs has sent markets – especially equities – soaring, but there are some risk premia remaining that... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily More thoughts about the ongoing rout in Treasuries US Treasuries are not benefitting from market turmoil, and we suspect they will keep struggling. 9th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil needs to fall a long way before Gulf’s pegs are at risk Oil prices have now fallen well below the level needed to balance current accounts across much of the Gulf, which may raise concerns about the sustainability of the region’s dollar pegs. And, indeed... 9th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Gold, equity bear markets, and recessions While gold prices have edged down since “Liberation Day”, this is not unusual during a sudden equity market selloff. In fact, gold’s track record suggests that prices are likely to rise from here... 9th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (April 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 8th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the sudden sell-off in bonds We think the turnaround in longer-dated Treasury yields has bit further to run, if – and it’s a big if – the worst is now over for the US stock market. 8th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Trump’s medicine leaves a bitter taste for equities The carnage in global equity markets has continued after President Trump doubled down on his tariff plans, noting that “sometimes you have to take a medicine to fix something”. We still think he will... 7th April 2025 · 4 mins read
