Capital Daily Fed unlikely to join the hiking crew The inflation backdrop is growing increasingly problematic for the Fed and rate cuts are not likely anytime soon. That said, our sense is that the chance of rate hikes and a meaningful further sell... 18th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: energy shock adds to currency, sovereign risks Kenya’s reliance on energy imports from Gulf States leaves it amongst the most vulnerable on the continent to the conflict in the Middle East. The fragile external position leaves the onus on the... 18th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Why the UK stock market isn’t doing better despite higher oil prices The Gilt market has grabbed a lot of headlines since the start of the war in the Middle East, as government bond yields have surged by more in the UK than elsewhere in response to soaring oil prices... 17th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Equities Update How much of a bubble is there really in Korean equities? While a partial unwind of earlier “excessive exuberance” may explain some of the huge swings in Korea’s equities since the Iran war began, we think the fundamentals of its earlier rally are stronger... 17th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily War and monetary policy, and what it means for markets Major central bank meetings this week will give investors an early sense of how monetary policymakers will respond to the war. We suspect there isn’t much good news in the offing for bonds. 16th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Why the yen hasn’t been a safe haven The yen hasn’t fared especially well over the war so far, but we suspect that reflects some particular features of the current situation and isn’t a sign its safe-haven days are over for good. 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Limited signs of distress in financial markets amid Iran War While the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has led to a surge in volatility across most major asset classes, there are limited signs of distress in core money markets. That may change if the war... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 sector implications of the surge in oil prices The relative resilience of the S&P 500’s ‘big-tech’ sectors since the US and Israel attacked Iran is a stark contrast to their underperformance when oil prices surged in 2022. It might reflect... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The state of play in global bond markets Government bonds shrugged off US inflation data and remain at the mercy of developments in the Middle East. This Capital Daily outlines the current state of play in global government bond markets. 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Policy response leaves Egypt better placed to weather war Egypt hasn’t been involved directly in the conflict in the Middle East but it is one of the most vulnerable EMs to the indirect effects, especially higher energy prices and tighter global financial... 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Putting the risk genie fully back in the bottle may take a while Hopes that an end to the war in the Gulf could be in sight appear to be growing. While that justifies the stabilisation in financial markets over the past day or so, we see three key reasons for... 10th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack – Iran Conflict Edition (March 2026) The conflict in the Middle East has triggered a major shock to energy flows from the region, sending prices of oil and natural gas soaring. Shipments of petroleum through the Strait of Hormuz have... 10th March 2026 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Market implications of three scenarios for the conflict Growing optimism that the conflict in the Middle East will be severe but short-lived has been accompanied over the past 24 hours by some retreat in the price of oil and a partial unwinding of the big... 10th March 2026 · 6 mins read
