Capital Daily US small caps can't catch a break To some extent, the persistent underperformance of US small-cap (SC) equities probably reflects lingering concerns about the effects of Donald Trump’s policies on the economy. But even if fears of a... 2nd June 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The greenback just can’t catch much of a break The dollar has stabilised overall this week amid continued uncertainty around US trade policy and questions around the fiscal package that is still working its way through Congress. Market... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 25) China’s economy slowed in April. And although US tariffs have had a bigger impact on consumer confidence than export growth, broader external headwinds will drive down export growth later this year... 30th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: RIP IRA?; US solar stocks sink; EU-UK ETS linkage President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” that would significantly restrict access to tax credits provided under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is one step closer to becoming reality, which adds to... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Outperformance of EM equities unlikely to return Most emerging market equities have held up surprisingly well of late, and in fact broadly outperformed global equities. But we think further outperformance is unlikely, especially for commodity... 30th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is US equity exceptionalism back for good? We’re nudging up our forecasts for equities in most non-US developed markets, partly in response to our upwardly revised projections for the S&P 500. But we still think they’ll lag equities in the US... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equities could thrive despite tariffs We’re cautiously optimistic about the prospects for China’s stock market over the rest of the year, despite the clear headwinds it faces. 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What the US CIT’s tariff ruling means for the markets Despite a positive initial reaction in global stock markets to yesterday’s ruling by the US Court of International Trade (CIT), there is still plenty of uncertainty about future tariffs on US imports... 29th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (May 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although continued trade tensions have heightened economic uncertainty, they have had only a modest... 29th May 2025 · 1 min read
Bonds Update Calm after the bond market storm The recent substantial volatility in global sovereign bond markets hasn’t altered our view that in most cases 10-year government bond yields will end this year near, or below, their current levels. We... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2025) We expect economic prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa to continue to improve. The direct headwinds from the US’s protectionist shift look to be limited and terms of trade look set to improve for most... 28th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily More thoughts on the JGB drama, and what it means for the world Despite all of the debt and deficit news out of the US, the spotlight in ultra-long bond markets has increasingly been focused on Japan. The surge in yields there last week seems to have sparked a... 28th May 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Dollar falters as fiscal and trade policy concerns grow President Trump’s recommendation of a 50% tariff on the EU gave the dollar only a short-lived boost and the DXY index is still on track to snap a four-week ‘winning’ streak. This looks likely to be... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The JGB sell-off isn’t as worrisome as it might seem We think the yields of Japanese government bonds will continue to rise, but because of BoJ hikes rather than concerns about fiscal sustainability. 23rd May 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Big is not so beautiful for bonds The passage of Donald Trump’s ‘one, big beautiful bill’ through the House of Representatives today has done little to calm nerves in the bond market, which had already been frayed by Moody’s recent... 22nd May 2025 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
