Bonds Update Limited scope for further US HY spread compression US high yield (HY) corporate bond spreads have narrowed, on net, since the Iran conflict began, and look extremely tight by past standards. We don’t think they will narrow much further over the rest... 22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update LatAm bonds to outperform if energy prices fall further If the Iran war eases and energy prices fall back further, we expect LatAm bonds to outperform, as monetary policy would be eased substantially in Brazil and, to a lesser extent, in Mexico. By... 21st April 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Can anything slow earnings momentum? War and the associated economic hit couldn’t put a dent in S&P 500 earnings expectations but, given how concentrated and optimistic expectations now look, any sign of weakness in tech earnings next... 21st April 2026 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update EZ spreads won’t rise by much despite high debt levels A sustained re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz would probably mean euro-zone bond spreads narrow a bit further this year. What’s more, our base case is that spreads in Italy and France will remain... 20th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The Strait and markets, and tech equities’ surge The re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has taken the wind out of markets’ sails at the start of the week, but investors are still very optimistic – arguably surprisingly so. Meanwhile, if the... 20th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Reopening of Strait leaves us close to our baseline scenario The announcement that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened has extended this month's dual rally in stocks and bonds. We think both rallies have further to run if things progress broadly in line with... 17th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think China’s markets have lost their allure China’s stock and bond markets have been left behind, to some extent, during the recent global relief rally, but we suspect they’ll be on the front foot again before long. 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of rate expectations Despite apparent contradictions between market pricing and consensus surveys when it comes to interest rate expectations, both seem consistent with a relatively “adverse” outcome to the war. That... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Treasuries’ hedging role is diminished, but not gone The recent return of a positive stock-bond correlation has raised questions about the role of bonds in a portfolio, such as the traditional “60/40”. We agree that their use as a hedge may have... 15th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Further gains in Hungary’s markets may be harder to come by Hungary’s election result has been well received by markets, but further gains may be more limited and conditional on concrete results. 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Two steps forward, one step back for markets The weekend’s news is potentially another blow to markets, although investors have so far interpreted it fairly cautiously. Even in a benign scenario, though, we suspect there’s little medium-term... 13th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The rally in non-US bonds has room to run While government bonds have rallied since news of a ceasefire broke, they have unwound less of their initial sell-off than other assets. We think the rally has further to go in most countries, albeit... 10th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of equity resilience Equities staged a historic rally yesterday and have generally held on to those gains today, even as moves in other markets have partly unwound. A lot of optimism now looks priced in ahead of the... 9th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Even a war didn’t dampen investors’ appetite for risk much If the ceasefire does mark the “beginning of the end” of the war, then the conflict will have had surprisingly little effect on risk premia in US markets. But that doesn’t mean, in our view, that they... 8th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Listed BDC data highlight mounting private credit distress While some of the recent slump in listed US Business Development Companies’ (BDCs) valuations may be overdone, several of the risk metrics we track suggest that stress is building beneath the surface... 7th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Could equities recover even if the war heated up further? History suggests that US equities and oil won’t necessarily hit their turning points at the same time during this conflict, but we suspect they’ll nonetheless remain closely linked in the near term. 7th April 2026 · 4 mins read
