Europe Economics Update French borrowing costs may soon exceed Italy’s We think France’s government borrowing costs will rise above those of Italy before long. This may seem surprising in light of Italy’s higher debt burden and lower trend growth rate, but it reflects... 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What’s next for China’s financial markets? While trade and overcapacity related risks remain, we see a bright outlook for China’s equities. But we expect a more challenging path for its bonds and currency over the remainder of the year. 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update LDP election defeat points to looser fiscal policy in Japan With Japan’s ruling coalition losing its majority in the Upper House, fiscal policy may be loosened over the coming months. However, we think that the outlook for monetary policy will be a more... 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Trump’s Fed feud threatens the dollar’s rebound Renewed concerns around the Trump administration’s attacks on the Fed’s independence have meant that while the US dollar is a touch stronger over the week as a whole, it is ending the week on the... 18th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Are fiscal concerns mounting again in Japan? We don’t think worries about Japan’s fiscal position are too severe, and expect the country’s equities and exchange rate, at least, to recover by the end of the year. 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A brief glimpse of a post-Powell world Yesterday’s reports that President Trump is considering firing Fed Chair Powell imminently were quickly denied and most key market prices have reverted to roughly where they were before the news broke... 17th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal risks still simmering across CEE Measures of fiscal risk premia have generally eased across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past few months, but the region’s public debt dynamics remain a point of concern. Budget deficits... 17th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2025) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Our base case is that EM growth will slow only modestly this year. But President Trump’s... 17th July 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily S&P 500 likely to get back on the straight and narrow Yesterday’s further ‘narrowing’ of the US stock market will have left it increasingly ‘concentrated’. But we don’t think these trends will reverse any time soon. And they may strengthen next year. 16th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a bumpy path to macro stability ahead The tension inherent in the Milei administration’s goals of using a strong exchange rate to lower inflation while trying to improve Argentina’s external balance sheet is becoming increasingly apparent... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation rebound still a headwind to US assets The latest US CPI report showed limited sign of any tariff impact but we continue to think that a rebound in inflation remains a headwind to US stock and bond markets this year – though it would... 15th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa and the impact of a lower inflation target A lowering of the South Africa’s inflation target is being hotly debated among policymakers and we are now factoring in a change to the target, from 3-6% now to 3±1%, into our forecasts. The Reserve... 15th July 2025 · 15 mins read
FX Markets Update EM FX rally has run its course as tariffs add to downside risk Despite some weakness on the back of the latest tariff threats, emerging market currencies have broadly appreciated against the US dollar this year, mostly due to greenback-specific headwinds. We... 15th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Trump tariffs and the dollar revisited (again) The Trump administration’s continued re-escalation of tariffs threats have so far made limited impact on financial markets, but one key difference in the way market participants have digested the... 14th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Focus Measuring Treasury term premia Although estimates of the 10-year Treasury term premium vary, most approaches suggest that it currently sits at around its highest level in a decade or so. We expect it to remain elevated over the... 14th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EUR/USD strength is built on shaky economic assumptions While the interest-rate-differential-defying strength of EUR/USD may be partly explained by increased currency hedging, it also reflects shifting expectations for economic growth. We think those will... 14th July 2025 · 4 mins read
