Chief Economist's Note Trump, institutions and the deafening silence of the markets Late last week, Donald Trump did what he does best: lob a grenade into the machinery of government. In this case, the target was the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the body responsible for... 6th August 2025
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: current account deficit becoming a bigger concern Brazil’s current account deficit has continued to widen and is likely to reach around 4.0% of GDP by year-end. Financing this should be manageable, provided the domestic policymaking backdrop doesn’t... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: bright prospects, stormy politics Côte d’Ivoire’s economic fortunes appear good, and we expect growth to accelerate, underpinned by strong cocoa, oil and gold exports. However, the country’s sizeable sovereign debt servicing costs and... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls history repeat & market fallout Financial markets have stabilised after Friday’s US payrolls shock and, unlike this time last year, there are few signs that large swings in government bond and currency markets are leading to a... 4th August 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Payrolls déjà vu threatens the dollar’s rebound Today’s weak US non-farm payrolls data has undone much of the dollar’s rally this week. While the DXY index is still on up the week, and ~2.5% stronger since the start of July, the increased risk of a... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Trump's tariffs on India come with a Russian edge India will be hit by a 25% US tariff and that rate could climb higher depending on the nature of the as-yet-unspecified penalty due to its economic ties to Russia. But with trade talks between the US... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Gold’s evolving role in asset allocation One key driver of the rise in gold-backed ETF holdings appears to be increased demand from institutional investment managers. Given the weaker relationship between gold prices and US TIPS yields... 31st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025) Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have... 31st July 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Three key points on the FOMC’s hawkish surprise Judging by yesterday’s policy announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference remarks, the FOMC doesn’t look to be in a hurry to change its policy stance. That points to somewhat higher Treasury... 31st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2025) Our indicators show that capital inflows into EMs slowed in July. Most EMs would be well-placed to cope with a bout of outflows if risk sentiment were to worsen, but there are a handful of vulnerable... 30th July 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily You need to grow to be exceptional in the stock market Faster growth in earnings per share (EPS) is the main reason why equities in the US have fared better in local-currency (LC) terms than those in the euro-zone since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)... 30th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will be able to cope with higher US tariffs. And better terms of trade for most countries mean that painful currency adjustments are unlikely. That alongside lower... 30th July 2025 · 0 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japan won’t experience a fiscal crisis anytime soon Most of the recent increase in long-term bond yields appears to have been driven by higher expectations for short-term interest rates as well as reduced demand from traditional investors in long-dated... 30th July 2025 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Observations from the surge in EM FX bond issuance The continued rise in EM sovereign FX debt sales this year suggests that EM governments have accepted the need to issue at higher yields, but are doing so at shorter maturities than in the past. And... 29th July 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – shrugging off trade tensions We spent last week in Beijing and Shanghai visiting clients. The mood in China was not as downbeat as a year ago and our sense is that many companies and residents have adapted to the new normal of... 29th July 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Focus India and foreign market access: opening the gates India is now home to some of the world’s largest financial markets, but foreign access remains limited. That will change over time as policymakers continue to liberalise the capital account, but it is... 29th July 2025 · 12 mins read
