Capital Daily Credit markets are feeling the pain The S&P 500 may have largely withstood the surge in Treasury yields so far but US corporate bonds have not been so lucky. And we suspect credit spreads will rise further over the coming year or so. 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Bonds likely to rebound; equities on borrowed time We continue to think the AI rally is reaching its final stages, even if recent headwinds to equity markets owe more to surging government bond yields than a re-assessment of the prospects for tech... 30th September 2026 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily Where to hide from the bond market rout Most assets would be affected if US yields continued to rise, but some – including bonds in economies with less-ingrained price pressures and weak currencies – might be the best of a bad bunch. 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Equity resilience to bond yield surge won’t last forever While bond markets have been largely in hock to energy prices over recent weeks, headline equity indices have generally held up well in the face of surging bond yields. In large part, that reflects... 29th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How will Brazil’s markets respond to the election? The experience from Brazil’s 2018 and 2022 elections is that a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would support equities (a boost of 10-20% seems plausible) and pull local currency bond yields down sharply... 28th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 26) Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa should remain resilient despite high energy prices and tighter global financial conditions. We’re optimistic relative to the consensus on growth in much of the region... 28th September 2026 · 0 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Poor returns from China’s assets are structural, not cyclical Despite China’s apparently robust economic growth over the past decade, the returns from its stock market have been poor and its bond yields are very low. We think the next decade will be similarly... 28th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Treasury sell-off looks overdone The surge in the 10-year Treasury yield to ~5.25% reflects higher oil prices and a strong US economy more than AI debt issuance or fiscal concerns. We continue to forecast this yield to fall this year... 28th September 2026 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed further to just 1.3% y/y in August. This reflects lingering typhoon disruptions and continued weakness in fiscal spending, with local governments... 28th September 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily There are still reasons for optimism on US Treasuries Our base case remains that the Treasury rout will eventually turn into a rally, even though the risks of an even deeper sell-off are clearly growing. 28th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa resilient but pockets of vulnerability remain Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa should remain resilient despite high energy prices and tighter global financial conditions. We’re positive relative to the consensus on growth in much of the region... 25th September 2026 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily Two points for markets on the US-China trade talks We think the contentious US-China trade negotiations are much more important for Chinese equities than US ones. Meanwhile, the current backdrop favours a further renminbi rally. 25th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan can sustain a 10-year JGB yield above 3% The rise in the 10-year JGB yield to more than 3% this week is concerning as that benchmark is now higher than our long run forecast for Japan’s nominal GDP growth. However, for now we aren’t overly... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rout in JGBs will deepen While JGBs have been caught up in the latest chapter of the global bond market rout, we don’t expect them to continue to come under a lot of fire. 24th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Focus AI debt boom: implications for Treasuries and corporate bonds Corporate bond issuance by AI-related firms has surged over the past year, particularly at the long end of the curve. This could push up Treasury term premia before long if it continues at this rate... 24th September 2026 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Election worries will keep pressure on French bonds Global bond markets have taken a big hit in recent months, but French government bonds have been singled out. We think this makes sense given the widening fiscal deficit and the growing risks around... 24th September 2026 · 3 mins read
