Japan Economics Weekly Hawkish BoJ lifts 10-year yield to three-decade high The 10-year JGB yield climbed to a three decade high this week in response to hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan and reports that the government will compile a supplementary budget to keep the... 15th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The case for further shekel strength The Israeli shekel has been one of the world’s best-performing currencies this year, hitting a 33-year high against the dollar. Further gains are possible provided geopolitical risks remain contained... 14th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Markets aren’t braced for an ‘extreme’ scenario in the Iran war The Iran war poses two key threats to the global economy – higher inflation and weaker growth. Up until now, the markets have responded to the first but seemingly ignored – or at least ‘looked through... 14th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Looking beneath the AI rally A look under the hood of the US stock market suggests that the ongoing rally has been accompanied by some unusual dynamics. That doesn’t mean the rally is unsustainable, but it suggests some near-term... 13th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy are very sensitive to the severity and duration of the increase in energy prices. Our baseline forecasts are based on an assumption that the price of Brent crude... 13th May 2026 · 1 min read
Event Markets Drop-In: AI-driven paradigm shift or dotcom bubble redux? What’s next for equities 21st May 2026, 3:00PM BST Equity markets remain gripped by the AI rally, with related stocks powering gains across global indices.
Capital Daily Gilt mess still more about global problems than Starmer The surge in long-term Gilt yields over recent weeks owes as much to the rise in energy prices as it does to the UK’s latest political melodrama. On both fronts, it looks increasingly as though things... 12th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Strait still closed; Trump goes to China; Starmer clings on Neither US-Iran negotiations nor the Trump-Xi summit appear to offer much cause for cheer, and UK politics are inching towards another precipice, but equity markets appear determined to party on. 11th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Why the labour market won’t stop the stock market juggernaut Today’s US Employment Report painted a picture of a labour market that is neither tight enough nor loose enough to derail the stock market. 8th May 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update What would a new PM mean for the UK economy and markets? With Starmer’s premiership looking on the precipice, we are resending this analysis we published on Friday 8th May that highlights the main policies of his potential replacements and what they might... 8th May 2026 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Greenback will regain its footing even if peace deal materialises At face value, the dollar’s weakness over recent days is unsurprising given growing hopes of a US-Iran peace deal and the consequent drop in energy prices. But we think that the renewed outperformance... 7th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update How much more upside for equities if the Strait re-opened fully? If the Strait of Hormuz re-opened fully soon, the upside for global equities might appear limited given MSCI’s ACWI Index is now more than 4% higher than before the Iran war began. But its surge from... 7th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (May 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price... 7th May 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US-Iran peace: fifth time the charm for markets? Financial markets have responded strongly to signs that the US-Iran conflict may end soon. We think government bonds have further to rally than most assets given how far they still are from pre-war... 6th May 2026 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Making sense of the war’s impact on commodity currencies If a deal materialises between the US and Iran, we think currencies of energy exporters would still hold up fairly well this year given it would still take some time for the terms of trade shock to... 6th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy shock halts Turkey’s rebalancing High energy prices are leading to a surge in Turkey’s imports and have pushed up inflation sharply. While the central bank appears to have room to stand pat for now, a prolonged period of high energy... 5th May 2026 · 3 mins read
