The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia will exceed consensus expectations, we think growth will disappoint …
14th August 2025
The economy has mostly held up against US tariffs so far, thanks largely to resilient consumer spending. But exports have weakened, and investment is showing signs of slowing. With the upcoming USMCA renegotiation set to prolong trade uncertainty, both …
Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish this year as low confidence and slowing income growth …
7th August 2025
Despite the unexpected rise in CPI inflation in June, we still think the weakness in the labour market means it’s only a matter of time before wage growth and inflation slow to rates consistent with the 2% inflation target. We think the Bank of England …
6th August 2025
Oil market remains unfazed by geopolitics for now Despite President Trump’s threat to enforce 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, which could effectively choke off up to 5% of global oil supply, oil prices are roughly where they were at …
5th August 2025
China Chart Pack (Jul. 25) …
31st July 2025
Asia Chart Pack (July 2025) …
Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) …
30th July 2025
Our View: The EU-US trade agreement, which will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods exports to the US, will deal only a small hit to GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe. With inflation pressures in parts of the region likely to remain strong …
29th July 2025
The latest data suggest that global industry has been resilient to tariffs so far this year. But global trade softened in May and the latest surveys point to further weakness to come. Consumer spending remains subdued in most advanced economies. And …
President Trump’s tariff threats this month put Latin America in the firing line, in stark contrast to Liberation Day when the region was largely unaffected. Taken together with headwinds from tight policy and lower commodity prices, growth is likely to …
India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, making it a global outperformer. While inflation has continued to fall sharply, we expect it will rise steadily towards the RBI’s 4% target over the …
24th July 2025
Yields for the main commercial property sectors have been remarkably stable over past 18 months, and we expect that stability will continue. That means capital value growth will average under 3% p.a. over 2025-29. Thanks to stronger rental growth the …
Australia’s economy is struggling to gain momentum, while the recent rebound in activity in New Zealand increasingly looks like a false start. As the lull in activity lifts spare capacity, underlying price pressures should continue to ease in both …
Japan’s economy has largely shrugged off global trade tensions and the trade deal reached between the US and Japan has removed a key downside risk. With inflation set to keep overshooting the Bank of Japan’s forecasts, we expect the Bank to resume its …
23rd July 2025
Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with more oil supply coming online, we think that prices will decline further. Fiscal policy in the Gulf will become less supportive as a result, weighing on activity in non-oil …
22nd July 2025
Tariff negotiations rumble on, but our base case remains that the tariffs ultimately imposed will not cause a recession – though we expect growth to slow. We forecast GDP growth of 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. Price effects have been limited so far, …
17th July 2025
The economy faces a prolonged period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth at or below 1% annualised over the rest of the year. Canada’s retaliatory …
The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or (in China's case) have avoided high tariffs by shipping via third countries. So long as this …
Based on the tariffs that are currently in place, the average US tariff rate is now about 15%, compared to 2.3% in 2024. Recent letters sent to US trade partners threaten to hike reciprocal tariff rates to near April 2nd levels in most cases, which would …
16th July 2025
APAC Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2025) …
9th July 2025
We think the euro-zone economy will not grow at all in Q2 and Q3 as the first-quarter boost from tariff front-running will not be repeated. Looking through the tariff disruption, growth will be sluggish as consumer confidence is low and investment likely …
8th July 2025
The makings of an oil market glut The decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace of output hikes in August cements our view that the downward pressure on oil prices will intensify over the next 18 months or so. Admittedly, we assume that OPEC+ will slow the …
7th July 2025
The big 0.8% m/m fall in Nationwide house prices in June suggests that the housing market is still struggling to recover from both the stamp duty-induced lull and the weak economy. While some leading indicators suggest that a turnaround in the housing …
3rd July 2025
The gradual recovery in property values underway in Europe is unlikely to be pushed off track by tariff developments this year, but we think values still have further to fall in the US and APAC as they adjust to the higher interest rate environment. …
2nd July 2025
Housing is struggling under the weight of high borrowing costs – a problem unlikely to ease if, as we expect, the Fed holds rates steady this year due to tariff-driven inflation, followed by only a modest 50bp of loosening in 2026. We expect existing home …
30th June 2025
Asia Chart Pack (June 2025) …
China Chart Pack (June 25) …
27th June 2025
India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, making it a global outperformer. The recent sharp drop in inflation has enabled the Reserve Bank of India to frontload its easing cycle and we think …
26th June 2025
The US-brokered Iran-Israel ceasefire has allayed fears of the conflict spilling over into the Gulf and concerns about a closure of the Strait of Hormuz have diminished. This has eased the risks to the Gulf’s capacity to ship oil to market, but it has …
Our View: Emerging Europe is less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but we have still recently nudged down some of our GDP growth forecasts for this year. Monetary policy will be eased slightly more quickly than we previously …
Africa Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) …
25th June 2025
The latest data suggest that the boost to industry and trade from businesses front-running US tariffs is over. Manufacturing activity softened in April and May, and new orders have weakened. While consumer confidence has partially rebounded from …
24th June 2025
We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is mostly extended, keeping tariffs at 10% for countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. Tariffs will not cause a recession – provided Congress can quickly redirect the tariff revenue …
23rd June 2025
20th June 2025
UK commercial property is on the road to recovery and lending to the sector has been strong in recent months. But with yields set to remain stable, the rise in capital values will be modest over the next few years. Thanks to stronger rental growth the …
18th June 2025
Mexico has weathered the US’s shift toward protectionism better than many feared just a few months ago, but the economy is still likely to struggle this year. While the rest of the region is relatively insulated from the trade war, lower commodity prices …
17th June 2025
Canada Chart Pack (June 2025) …
11th June 2025
Euro-zone GDP rose strongly in Q1 but the economy will struggle in the rest of this year as tariff front-running ends and higher US tariffs start to weigh more heavily on activity. Increased defence and infrastructure spending will then support GDP growth …
10th June 2025
We'll be discussing the outlook for UK fiscal policy and the wider economy shortly after the Chancellor's Spending Review is released in a 20-minute online Drop-In at 3pm BST on Wednesday 11th June. (Register here .) The strong start to the year shouldn’t …
4th June 2025
Note: we will be discussing oil, industrial metals tariffs, and more in an online briefing on Wednesday 4th June at 3pm BST. You can register here . Pressure picks up in commodity markets OPEC+’s announcement that it will continue to add oil to the market …
China Chart Pack (May 25) …
30th May 2025
All-property capital values edged up by 0.1% in Q1, marking the first increase since mid-2022. Meanwhile, appraisal-based cap rates were flat after compressing by a slight margin in Q4 2024. We still believe appraisals have further to fall given the …
The latest data confirm that the world economy got off to a weak start this year. World trade has been one bright spot, as firms attempt to front-run tariffs. But business surveys have softened, and falling consumer confidence bodes ill for domestic …
29th May 2025
Although continued trade tensions have heightened economic uncertainty, they have had only a modest impact on consumer and business sentiment in the Antipodes. Indeed, we think the Australian economy will grow at around its trend rate over the coming …
We suspect most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the rise in stamp duty on 1st April rather than any longer-lasting influence from the softer outlook for the UK economy. This supports our view that a …
The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or have avoided high tariffs via third countries. So long as this remains the case, we expect …
28th May 2025
Africa Chart Pack (May. 2025) …
We doubt that the region’s strong start to the year will be sustained given the backdrop of lower commodity prices, tight policy and, in Mexico’s case in particular, uncertainty around US trade policy. Despite the recent dovish shift by many of the …
27th May 2025
Our View: The economies of Central and Eastern Europe have lost momentum over the course of 2025 and, while the region is relatively insulated from US tariffs, the risks to our growth forecasts have generally shifted lower this month. Some central banks …
22nd May 2025
