US Economics Update H-1B change highlights crackdown on legal immigration too The White House’s decision to impose a $100,000 application fee for H-1B visas confirms that the Trump administration is also determined to clamp down on legal immigration, which could further reduce... 22nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economic Outlook More tax rises to add to economy’s woes The prospect of more tax hikes in the Budget in November adds to our view that inflation in the UK won’t remain higher than in the euro-zone and that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4... 22nd September 2025 · 18 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC keeps options open, likely to cut again this year Bank of Canada officials signalled back in July they would support further interest rate cuts if labour market conditions continued to worsen, and this week they delivered, lowering the policy rate by... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed returns to Greenspan's risk management doctrine For long-time Fed watchers, Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference this week was a return to the glory days of Alan Greenspan during the 1990s and 2000s, when “the Maestro” first adopted a risk... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jul. 2025) The sharp decline in retail sales in July is not as bad as it first looks, with August’s flash estimate pointing to a swift rebound, suggesting the weakness was mostly payback for earlier strength... 19th September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor’s tricky fiscal situation just got trickier The combination of a likely downgrade to the Office for Budget Responsibility's productivity growth forecast in the Budget on 26th November and the further rise in borrowing costs this week adds to... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation will continue to overshoot BoJ’s forecasts Given that Governor Ueda is still sounding very non-committal about the timing of the next rate hike, the two hawkish dissents at this week’s BoJ meeting could well prove to be a red herring. But with... 19th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan inching towards tighter policy While the two dissents by BoJ Board members could be a red herring, we’re sticking to our long-held view that the Bank will resume its tightening cycle next month and lift rates to 1.5% by 2027. Note... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The great pension switch into equities: for richer or poorer? The flipside of pension plans’ waning demand for very long-dated bonds has been their waxing demand for equities. Indeed, in the case of US private defined contribution (DC) plans, the share of... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Aug. 2025) Today’s releases highlight the deteriorating nature of the public finances even though the economy hasn’t been terribly weak. We think this will contribute to the Chancellor having to raise around... 19th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ will cut further to revive the ailing economy With New Zealand’s real GDP having plunged last quarter, the output gap is now at its most negative level since the Global Financial Crisis. The excess capacity in the economy will exert downward... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The Bank of Japan will probably look past the ongoing fall in headline inflation, given that underlying inflation is holding up reasonably well. Accordingly, we still think there’s a case for the Bank... 19th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) We expect growth to average more than 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has opened the... 18th September 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update BoE unlikely to cut interest rates again this year While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its concerns over rising inflation. As a result, we... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (18th Sep. 2025) For updated and more detailed analysis see here. While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
