US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Nov. 2025) Existing home sales rose to a nine-month high of 4.13m annualised in November and should climb further in the coming months, as deals agreed when borrowing costs fell in the third quarter continue to... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly 2026 – Key themes and possible surprises We think 2026 will be the year inflation finally falls to the 2.0% target prompting the Bank of England to cut interest rates further than most expect, from 3.75% now to 3.00%. This final Weekly of... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly No sign of labour shortages despite falling population Despite the record decline in population in the third quarter, lower immigration does not appear to be leading to labour shortages. That provides some support to our view that the Bank of Canada will... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) The sizeable fall in core retail sales in October chimes with weak consumer confidence, although large temporary drivers in either direction are partly to blame. While the solid advance estimate for... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ signals additional rate hikes are in the pipeline When the Bank of Japan delivered a much-anticipated 25bp hike at its meeting today, it signalled a willingness to tighten policy further. With wage-price dynamics set to remain favourable, we expect... 19th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Nov. 2025) November’s retail sales and public finances data reveal some tentative signs of improvement, but both are coming too late to make much difference to retailers in the so-called “Golden Quarter” and for... 19th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Dec. 2025) The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates at its meeting today was clearly signalled ahead of time and therefore came as no surprise. Crucially, however, the Board’s hawkish messaging... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s economy isn’t in the clear just yet Following a strong rebound in the New Zealand economy in Q3, financial markets are increasingly pricing in the start of a new RBNZ tightening cycle in the months ahead. However, we remain sceptical... 19th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (November 2025) With inflation still running hot, the Bank of Japan is certain to resume its tightening cycle at its meeting later today. Moreover, we think there’s a compelling case for the Bank to lift rates... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI investment boom to power economy We are increasingly confident that the surge in AI-related investment this year marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. Even allowing for ongoing labour market softness that will weigh on... 18th December 2025 · 16 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Soft growth to keep Bank on pause in 2026 The labour market has bounced back from the US tariff shock, but uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will hold back GDP growth, which we expect to average 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Lower... 18th December 2025 · 13 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Nov 2025) According to the BLS and its shutdown-affected consumer price data, price inflation suddenly collapsed in October and November. After increasing at an average monthly pace of 0.30% m/m over the... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Hawkish tilt at the BoE, but rate cuts to keep on coming The Bank of England struck a slightly hawkish tone while cutting interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75% today. But with inflation set to fall further than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Declining population weighing on unemployment The record decline in the population in the third quarter was mainly due to a sharp drop in international students at the start of the academic year, which will not be repeated. Nonetheless, the... 18th December 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (18th Dec. 2025) For updated and more detailed analysis see here. The Bank of England struck a slightly hawkish tone while cutting interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75% today. But with inflation set to fall further than... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Loose fiscal policy bolsters the case for RBA hikes The Australian government’s mid-year budget update showed that efforts to rein in public spending remain few and far between. With the economy pushing up against capacity constraints, the case for the... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
