Canada Rapid Response Labour Force Survey (Dec. 2024) The huge gain in employment in December supports our view that labour market conditions are strengthening, despite the recent upward trend in the unemployment rate. While weakness in private sector... 10th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s easing cycle may be inching closer Economic data released this week are likely to reinforce the Reserve Bank of Australia's dovish mood. Indeed, we learnt that underlying inflation is easing in earnest and is likely to undershoot the... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Case for tighter policy remains intact Wage growth continues to accelerate and all signs point to this year's Shunto delivering another strong pay hike. However, the Bank of Japan wants to see more clarity on US economic policy and we... 10th January 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Gilt market and fiscal policy: your questions answered With long-dated gilt yields hitting multi-decade highs, we held an online Drop-In session on Wednesday to discuss the outlook for the gilt market and the implications for government policy and the UK... 9th January 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update What taxes could the Chancellor raise to save her fiscal rule? We originally published an Update ahead of the general election on 4th July on what taxes the next government could raise. In light of the recent rise in gilt yields putting the Chancellor on course... 9th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term 1737471600 As the president-elect again prepares to take office, our US team held a special briefing to walk clients through what to expect in the opening phase of the second Trump admin
Canada Economics Focus Trump, Tariffs, and the 51st State Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric against Canada suggests we should take his tariff threats seriously. We already assume that Trump includes Canada in a likely 10% universal import... 9th January 2025 · 19 mins read
UK Economics Update Troubling start to 2025 casts doubt over our key 2025 forecasts The troubling start to 2025 is casting doubt over our key non-consensus forecasts for 2025. But we still think other forecasters are underestimating how fast the economy will grow, how far inflation... 9th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We are resending this publication because the heading of the previous version contained an error. With real household incomes set to fall again this year, the rebound in consumer spending will start... 9th January 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Nov. 2024) 9th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (November 24) Growth in base pay rose to its highest figure since 1992 in November, and we think that it will continue to hold strong through to this year. According to today’s preliminary estimate, labour cash... 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed worried by potential impact of Trump policy agenda After Chair Jerome Powell made a big fuss about claiming in last November’s press conference that the Fed wouldn’t speculate about what policies the incoming Trump administration will adopt, the... 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Sales slump to drag into 2025 The potentially inflationary policy mix of the incoming Trump administration will limit the decline in mortgage rates this year, squashing hopes for a major recovery in home sales. We expect... 8th January 2025 · 14 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Dec. 2024) The small decline in purchase mortgage applications in December is worse than it looks, as it masks a collapse in demand in the final few weeks of the month, driven by mortgage rates climbing above 7%... 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2025 Against a backdrop of lower interest rates and weak economic growth in much of Europe, we think the recovery in property values will continue at a gradual pace in 2025. Our forecast for euro-zone... 8th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Could the gilt market upend Rachel Reeves’ fiscal plans? 1736348400 Rachel Reeves’ room for manoeuvre is rapidly shrinking as long-end gilt yields rise.
