UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Nov. 2025) November’s money and lending figures suggest that while the pre-Budget speculation about tax rises had little influence on households’ borrowing decisions, they were inclined to save a bit more. 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan isn’t falling behind the curve just yet We aren’t convinced that the Bank of Japan is falling behind the curve despite the recent acceleration in bank lending. Nonetheless, there are few signs that BoJ rate hikes are resulting in tighter... 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate to edge back down We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 60,000 in December, with the unemployment rate edging back down to 4.5%. 2nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Dec. 2025) December’s 0.4% m/m decline in Nationwide house prices rounds off a tough year for the housing market and suggests the combination of still-high mortgage rates and weak employment are still weighing... 2nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing rally will soon slow in earnest Australia’s house price rally lost some steam in December and if we’re right that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift interest rates as soon as February this slowdown has further to run. 2nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Dec 9-10) The minutes of the FOMC’s December meeting, when it voted to lower the fed funds target range by 25bp to between 3.50% and 3.75%, are somewhat outdated given the slew of delayed data releases since... 30th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Oct. 2025) The healthy 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in October adds to evidence that the housing market has regained some momentum following the 75bp fall in mortgage rates earlier this year. Prices are now on... 30th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Government net debt set to fall below 100% of GDP Japan’s fiscal health has continued to improve. While the expansionary measures taken by PM Takaichi mean that the budget deficit won’t narrow any further next year, it will remain very low. And with... 30th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov. 2025) At first glance, the November activity data appear to be a mixed bag. However, a look under the hood suggests that the economy is poised to rebound firmly from its Q3 contraction. 26th December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) We judge that the recent strength in AI-related investment marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. We expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027. While labour demand remains soft , the... 23rd December 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Oct. & Nov. 2025) The rise in industrial production in November looks less impressive with a peek at the breakdown, which shows manufacturing output flat last month, and considering the move simply reverses a fall in... 23rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q3 Initial) The 4.3% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was well above the consensus estimate at 3.3%, but broadly in line with our own 4.5% estimate. A lot of other forecasters missed that this is essentially... 23rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Oct) The weakness of GDP over October and November raises the chance that GDP will contract in the fourth quarter. Even accounting for the effect of strikes in various service sectors, that weakness... 23rd December 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Will food inflation fall in DMS next year? Food CPI inflation has been elevated in several advanced economies in recent months, namely Japan, the UK and Canada, but we expect price pressures to ease in most cases. A combination of lower... 22nd December 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q3 2025 Final) Although GDP growth was unrevised at 0.1% q/q in Q3, the shape of growth is a bit healthier and less reliant on the public sector than the first estimate suggested. That said, the economy is still... 22nd December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Distorted data makes it hard to read the macro tea leaves The final full week of the year delivered a smorgasbord of shutdown-affected data releases, some fresher than others and some downright rotten. We doubt this new batch of data will have any major... 19th December 2025 · 9 mins read
