Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Earlier interest rate cuts are yet to have much effect on the Canadian economy, which remains trapped in a period of below-potential growth. Making matters worse, any boost to the economy from lower... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Sep. 2024) The improvement in the goods trade position in September was for all the wrong reasons, with a fall in imports outpacing a decline in exports. While this suggests that net trade provided a small boost... 5th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Sep. 2024) The trade deficit widened to $84.4bn in September, from an upwardly revised $70.8bn in August, as imports surged ahead of the short-lived port strike in October. 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will start cutting rates early next year Although the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a broadly neutral stance at its meeting today, we still think it will start to lower interest rates as soon as February next year. However, with the... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs still paint a bleak picture for global industry While the latest PMIs suggest that global industry started Q4 on a slightly better footing, the outlook for the manufacturing sector remains poor, especially in advanced economies. Meanwhile, although... 4th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Harris versus Trump: Closing thoughts Although the betting markets are still convinced that Donald Trump will win next week’s presidential election, the polls remain much closer – and within the margin of error. 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft data strengthens case for another 50bp cut While there were some positives to take from this week’s GDP data release, it still points to an economy stuck in a period of below potential growth. This reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada... 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct. 2024) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 15-month low in October suggests that the sector continued to struggle as hurricanes and the ongoing strike at Boeing disrupted manufacturing activity... 1st November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is this Liz Truss 2.0? The market fallout from Wednesday’s Budget is a long way from the 2022 mini-budget episode. While we can’t completely rule out the possibility of rapid rises in gilt yields triggering a self... 1st November 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2024) October’s 0.1% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices was a bit weaker than expected (consensus forecast +0.3% m/m, CE +0.4% m/m) and suggests that the recent falls in mortgage rates may be providing... 1st November 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Political vacuum won’t deter year-end rate hike It now looks likely that the existing LDP/Komeito coalition will remain in power via a partial alliance with the Democratic Party for the People. While there's a risk that the DPP demands policy... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) Australia’s housing rally continued to lose steam in October. However, with the RBA set to cut interest rates from early-2025, there are good reasons not to be too bearish on the outlook for house... 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Budget not a game-changer for the housing market The policies announced in yesterday’s Budget won’t have a significant bearing on the housing market. But the prospect that interest rates are a bit higher may soften demand and creates some downside... 31st October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch 25bp will be the new normal With the economy on strong ground, we expect the Fed to shift to a more gradual pace of easing, cutting interest rates by 25bp at each meeting until rates reach 3.00-3.25%. The outcome of next week’s... 31st October 2024 · 8 mins read
