UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Mar. 2025) March’s money and lending data suggest households were starting to spend more cautiously even before the full hit to consumer confidence from the heightened uncertainty caused by the new US tariffs... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates again before long The Bank of Japan revised down its growth forecasts and sounded more dovish when it left policy settings unchanged today. However, we believe that the Bank has become far too downbeat about the... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weak housing market starting to weigh on inflation Stretched housing affordability continues to keep a lid on house price growth. And if we’re right that the RBA will only lower rates by another 50bp, it will remain a headwind. But with the housing... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch US Fed Watch: Fed won’t cave to Trump pressure A contraction in GDP and near-flatlining in core PCE prices would usually be more than enough to persuade policymakers at the Fed to cut interest rates. Since those data precede the implementation of... 30th April 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Mar. 2025) The almost unchanged level of core PCE prices in March is welcome news but, given the data precede the implementation of broad-based tariffs, core inflation will inevitably rebound sharply in the... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q1) The 0.3% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP was entirely due to a pre-tariff 41.3% annualised surge in imports, with net exports subtracting a massive 4.8% points from GDP. This surge now appears... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Feb. 2025) Although the 0.2% m/m contraction in GDP in February was worse than expected, the preliminary estimate of a partial rebound in March should soothe fears that the economy is rapidly falling into... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Apr. 2025) April’s bigger-than-expected 0.6% m/m fall in Nationwide house prices (consensus forecast 0.0% m/m, Capital Economics -0.1% m/m) isn’t too surprising as most of it probably reflects home purchases... 30th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2025) 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japanese bank outperformance has a bit further to go Japanese banks are the one sector benefitting from the BoJ’s tightening cycle as higher interest rates lift their income by more than their expenses. And although they’ve struggled more recently amid... 30th April 2025 · 19 mins read
US Housing Market Update The implications of lumber tariffs While higher lumber tariffs will not significantly impact GDP growth in the US or Canada, they will drive up costs for US homebuilders. As affordability is already stretched, it is unlikely that... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data healthy amid DOGE purge The JOLTS data again showed the labour market stabilising at a healthy level in March. While there were for the first time some signs of the DOGE purge of the federal workforce in the survey, the... 29th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Surely the next 100 days won’t be as turbulent as the last? The US stock market and the dollar have fared worse over the last hundred days than they fared during the first hundred days of all other presidential terms since 1980. What’s more, there has been an... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Feb. 2025) February’s 0.4% m/m rise in house prices is still a bit stronger than the timely leading indicators - like rising months’ supply and longer average time on market - would suggest. However, along with... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US advance economic indicators (Mar) The advance economic indicators revealed a massive surge in consumer goods imports in March, as firms raced to beat the imposition of reciprocal tariffs in early April. As a result, we now estimate... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
