UK Housing Market Update Softening in UK housing market will only be temporary Leading indicators suggest most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the change in stamp duty rather than any longer-lasting influence of the softer... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (May 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although continued trade tensions have heightened economic uncertainty, they have had only a modest... 29th May 2025 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (May 2025) We suspect most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the rise in stamp duty on 1st April rather than any longer-lasting influence from the softer... 29th May 2025 · 1 min read
Bonds Update Calm after the bond market storm The recent substantial volatility in global sovereign bond markets hasn’t altered our view that in most cases 10-year government bond yields will end this year near, or below, their current levels. We... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Court ruling adds another layer of uncertainty to Trump's tariffs The ruling by the three-judge panel of the Federal Court of International Trade blocking President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will presumably be appealed by the administration all the way to the... 29th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (May 6-7) The minutes of the Fed’s early-May policy meeting were, on balance, slightly hawkish. In particular, “almost all participants commented on the risk that inflation could prove to be more persistent... 28th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch BoC to cut despite high core inflation We suspect the Bank of Canada will be more concerned by the weakness in the labour market than the rise in core inflation in April, so we are sticking to our view that the Bank will cut its policy... 28th May 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Mar.) The March PPI data show the folly of relying too much on the CPI data. Our calculations suggest that, based on the combined inputs from PPI and CPI, core PCE prices increased by a more muted 0.21% m/m... 28th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by Q1 2026 As was widely expected, the RBNZ cut its Official Cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, today. The revelation that the decision to cut was not a unanimous one has been interpreted as a hawkish signal by... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (May 2025) With the RBNZ clearly concerned about the health of the economy, we continue to believe that its easing cycle has much further to run. 28th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (April 2025) With underlying price pressures proving somewhat persistent, we're sticking to our view that the RBA won't cut rates as far as markets are anticipating. 28th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily How much further could Treasury term premia rise? The 10-year Treasury term premium, as estimated by ACM, rose to a more-than-decade high of ~0.9% last week amid renewed concerns about US fiscal policy. But while the premium remains far below the ~4%... 27th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Apr. 2025) The rebound in core durable goods orders in April wraps up a month of solid activity data, underscoring that tariffs have yet to inflict the severe damage on the economy some had feared. Nonetheless... 27th May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus The implications of lower quality UK economic data Today’s announcement of a two-week delay to the release of July's retail sales figures due to quality concerns is the latest in a series of errors, delays and suspensions that have undermined... 27th May 2025 · 20 mins read
Japan Economics Update Wage growth stronger than official data suggest The bulk of the evidence suggests that the recent sharp slowdown in regular earnings growth is a statistical anomaly rather than genuine. With this year’s spring wage negotiations resulting in the... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus How will Australia weather the China slowdown? Although the détente in the trade war may provide some respite to the Chinese economy in the near term, we remain pessimistic about its longer run prospects. The slowdown in China will undoubtedly... 27th May 2025 · 15 mins read
