Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Stretched affordability bodes poorly for housing cycle Although Australian house prices edged up a notch in November, we remain sceptical about prospects for a second wind in the housing cycle. Given that the RBA is unlikely to provide interest-rate... 2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 24) 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economy losing momentum, but public sector will help The recent news on activity is probably overstating the weakness of the economy as it is not adequately capturing the increases in government spending and public investment. Even so, it does appear as... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q3 & Sep.) The 1.0% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was not as bad as it looks, with most of the weakness due to a big drag from the volatile inventories component and the Bank of Canada likely to be... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Oct. 2024) October’s money and lending figures suggest that Budget worries prompted households to become more cautious with their borrowing and saving. Moreover, November’s weak activity data suggest the tax... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike rates further to 1.25% by 2026 The pick-up in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo in November points to the nationwide measure rising further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. With the yen set to remain weak for... 29th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Oct. 2024) & Tokyo CPI (Nov. 2024) The Tokyo CPI suggests that inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in November, supporting our long-held view that the Bank will hike rates in... 28th November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Pledge not to raise taxes may not survive contact with reality The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has confidently claimed that she will not be “coming back with more taxes”, but developments since the Budget have already whittled away her fiscal ‘headroom’. Further... 28th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Why is the RBNZ slashing rates but the RBA is not? While the RBNZ started hiking rates earlier during the recent tightening cycle than the RBA, it also lifted rates to a higher peak. The RBA tempered the degree of tightening in order to preserve the... 28th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to rebound as disruptions unwind The reversal of weather- and strike-related disruptions leave us anticipating a 190,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls in November. We expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%, while wage growth... 27th November 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump tosses first social media hand grenade Here we go again. This week President-elect Donald Trump lobbed his first social media hand grenade since the election – threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico if both countries didn... 27th November 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Oct. 2024) The 0.27% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in October was a little lower than we feared based on the earlier CPI and PPI data, but still confirms that prices rose at an above-target rate for the... 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: US climate policy under Trump: The IRA, Musk and 'drill, baby, drill' 1733324400 What will a second Trump presidency mean for the green transition? Should investors and companies expect an across-the-board rollback on regulation?
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (November 2024) The RBNZ didn’t provide a clear signal about the speed of future rate cuts when it lowered the overnight cash rates by 50bp today, but we think it will deliver another 50bp cut at its February meeting 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Oct. 24) The stagnation in headline inflation in October belies a renewed uptick in trimmed mean inflation and we’re sticking to our forecast that the RBA won’t cut interest rates before Q2 next year 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed FOMC Minutes (Nov 6-7) The minutes of the Fed’s early-November FOMC meeting, when it slowed the pace of policy loosening with a smaller 25bp cut, tell us little about whether to expect another smaller quarter-point cut at... 26th November 2024 · 2 mins read
