US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Strong supply pipelines cloud outlook for D.C. & Miami Multifamily is set to be a top-performing sector over our five-year forecast, but returns will differ significantly across the 17 metros in our coverage. Miami and D.C. are likely to struggle as... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Rare budget surplus within reach Japan may record a rare budget surplus this year which means that the incoming PM has more fiscal leeway than is generally acknowledged. However, as that improvement won’t be confirmed until late-2026... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 2025) September’s RICS survey provides further evidence that the prospect of tax rises in the Budget on 26th November has put the housing market on ice, particularly in London. If taxes on property were to... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Sep 16-17) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-September FOMC meeting confirm that “most participants observed that it was appropriate to move the target range for the federal funds rate toward a more neutral setting”... 8th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Answering your questions on the economic outlook and AI We held an online Drop-in session yesterday (see here for a recording) to discuss the US economic outlook. This Update answers several of the questions we received, including the role that AI will... 8th October 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Car finance refunds slim compensation with tax rises coming The possible £8.2bn of compensation for the mis-selling of car finance will be a nice windfall for some households. But it’s much smaller than the similar payments of £38.3bn in the 2010s and will... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) The prospect of around £27bn of tax hikes in the Budget on 26th November poses a downside risk to our forecast for GDP to grow by 1.2% in 2026 and by 1.5% in 2027. But it adds to our views that CPI... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily NZD may have hit its low, but we see downside elsewhere The RBNZ today dealt the New Zealand dollar another blow, but we think it will recover before long and that the Australian dollar will stop falling. The same can’t be said, though, for the European... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will delay rate hike until January While the economic case for tighter monetary policy remains intact, we suspect that the Bank of Japan will use the pressure by Japan’s incoming government as an opportunity to delay rate hikes until... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (October 25) The RBNZ signalled that further reductions are on the cards when it slashed the overnight cash rate by 50bp today and we think it will eventually lower rates to 2.25%. 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Aug. 25) The sharp slowdown in wage growth in August largely reflects the end of the summer bonus season and regular earnings growth seems to be settling around 2%-2.5%. 8th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Aug. 2025) The worsening in Canada’s goods trade balance in August was for all the wrong reasons, with exports falling and imports rising. Admittedly, unwrought gold played a notable role in flows in either... 7th October 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Sep. 2025) The fall in the Halifax measure of house prices in September was at odds with September’s 0.5% m/m rise on the alternative Nationwide measure. But it supports other leading indicators which suggest... 7th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand’s underperformance won’t last The prolonged underperformance of New Zealand’s economy has contributed to the Kiwi dollar being the worst-performing G10 currency last month, even as the Australian dollar was the best-performer... 7th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s profitability will continue to lag the US An improvement in corporate governance is a key reason behind the structural pick-up in corporate profit margins over the past two decades. However, even if corporate governance was improved further... 7th October 2025 · 4 mins read
