US Economics Update JOLTS data point to balanced labour market Despite showing a modest fall in job openings, the totality of the December JOLTS data are consistent with a labour market that has stabilised at a healthy level. 4th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Rolling tariff threat a downside risk to Canadian GDP Although President Trump has hit pause on tariffs on Canada, his communications suggest he still wants a broader agreement on various trade issues. Given the chaotic political situation in Canada, it... 4th February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook UK Housing Outlook: Housing to shrug off the weak economy Our forecast that mortgage rates will fall further than widely expected suggests that a decent recovery in transactions will allow house prices to rise by around 3.5% this year and by 4.5% next year... 4th February 2025 · 17 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan. 2025) The ISM manufacturing index finally rose back above the theoretical no-change level of 50.0 in January, but the trade war kicking off across the continent means that the recovery is likely to be short... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cuts not a panacea for Australia’s housing market Australia’s housing slowdown continued into the new year, as demand softened further. Although the prospect of imminent rate cuts could temporarily buoy buyer sentiment, we don’t expect a meaningful... 3rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Dec./Q4 2024) 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q1 2024) Demand for mortgage credit jumped in Q1 in response to the drop in mortgage rates over the second half of 2023. But a rise in financial market interest rates this week, due to higher-than-expected... 1st February 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed in no hurry with tariffs coming Our expectation is still that, in net terms, the policy mix the Trump administration is adopting will have a mildly stagflationary impact. That is why we expect GDP growth to slow below 2% from the... 31st January 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Tariff threat puts policymakers in a bind Despite the best efforts of the Canadian government to convince US officials that the border is secure, President Trump reiterated on Thursday that his administration will impose a 25% tariff on... 31st January 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Dec) December’s personal income and spending report brought news of another strong gain in real consumption, but with price pressures muted. 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Nov. 2024) The larger-than-expected decline in GDP in November and flash estimate of only a moderate rebound in December suggest that growth was 1.6% annualised last quarter, a little lower than we and the Bank... 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Chancellor won’t “kickstart” growth, but LT outlook rosy While we doubt the Chancellor’s plans to “kickstart economic growth” will lift the economy out of its recent malaise in the coming quarters, at the margin her strategy of growing the supply side of... 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily DeepSeek’s threat to US equity outperformance We don’t think US equity market outperformance is over yet, despite the challenge from DeepSeek. 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Jan. 2025) Although the muted 0.1% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices in January was slightly worse than expected, it is not too surprising given the rise in quoted mortgage rates at the end of last year. But... 31st January 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Structural labour shortages point to more rate hikes The Tokyo CPI suggests that the Bank of Japan’s Board will need to revise up their inflation forecasts yet again at the May meeting. And with the expansion in employment running on fumes as the... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA will start cutting rates in February With Australia's underlying inflation surprising materially to the downside in Q4, we've brought forward our forecast for the RBA's first rate cut from May to February. The data clearly show that... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
