Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan opening the door to December rate hike Recent communication from the Bank of Japan has left the door open to a rate hike in December. However, it’s not clear whether the Bank has already gathered sufficient information on the likely... 28th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA is done cutting rates this cycle With underlying inflation continuing to surprise to the upside and domestic demand being propped up by a revival in private investment, we no longer expect the RBA to loosen policy any further... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Oct. 25) Strong increases in industrial production and retail sales in October suggest that Japan’s economy at least stopped contracting this quarter. 28th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Oct. 25) & Tokyo CPI (Nov. 25) With the labour market still tight and inflation excluding fresh food and energy set to remain above 3% for now, the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle over the next couple of months. 27th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Markets give the smaller-than-expected Budget the thumbs up After months of speculation and an unprecedented leak of all the details an hour before the Chancellor’s speech, the financial markets have given the Budget the thumbs up and the Budget doesn’t... 26th November 2025 · 19 mins read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty over next Fed Chair clouds rate outlook The outlook for fed policy next year will depend not only on the economic outlook, but also whether a new Trump-appointed Fed Chair, from May, can convince his colleagues that rates should be cut... 26th November 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Budget (26th Nov. 2025) This is our initial take on the Budget based on the leaked details reported on the newswires ahead of the Chancellor’s speech and the initial market reaction. See here for our more detailed analysis... 26th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The case for a prolonged pause by the RBNZ The RBNZ has signalled its easing cycle is over and that policy normalisation could be on the agenda as soon as mid-2027. However, it is assuming that spare capacity will diminish much more rapidly... 26th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ done cutting, but no hikes before H2 2027 In line with our long-held forecast, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates to 2.25% at its meeting today and signalled that its easing cycle has now come to an end. As the recovery gains traction... 26th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) With inflationary pressures continuing to strengthen at the start of the quarter, there is little chance that rate cuts will be on the RBA’s agenda anytime soon. 26th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) We think the AI-investment boom is still in its relatively early stages and will eventually drive strong productivity gains as adoption of the technology rises. This keeps us optimistic on the growth... 25th November 2025 · 1 min read
Equities Update Why a hawkish Fed may be good news for stocks Even if the Fed were to deliver less easing than the ~90bp currently priced into financial markets over the coming year, history suggests that wouldn’t prevent further strong gains from the US equity... 25th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Sep. 2025) The PPI components feeding into the PCE deflator were, on balance, slightly hotter than we had initially anticipated, leading us to estimate that core PCE prices rose by 0.25% m/m in September. 25th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Sep 2025) The slightly softer-than-expected retail sales data for September won’t be enough to spoil the third quarter, with our estimate of third-quarter GDP growth still 3.6% annualised. But, together with... 25th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand: weak population growth holding back recovery The tighter labour market in Australia will continue to encourage large numbers of New Zealanders to move to Australia, holding back the recovery in the housing market and consumer spending. While... 25th November 2025 · 4 mins read
