The 2.6% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was a little better than the markets were braced for, but the bottom line is that growth has now been slowing for the past few quarters. We expect that downward trend to pick up pace over the first three months of this year, with first-quarter GDP growth slowing to only 1.5%. Meanwhile, if a Mar-a-Lago summit between the US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi is arranged for some time later this month, we doubt Trump would be willing to leave empty-handed.
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