Although GDP growth looks to have slowed slightly in the third quarter, at least partly due to the disruption caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, the surge in the ISM surveys suggests that underlying activity growth continues to strengthen. A weighted average of the two ISM indices rose to a twelve-year high in September and is consistent with GDP growth of more than 5% annualised. (See Chart.) Admittedly, the ISM surveys are probably being a little over-optimistic, and the alternative Markit PMI surveys have remained more subdued. Nonetheless, with global demand unusually strong, the 7% depreciation in the dollar this year providing a boost to exports and domestic activity benefitting from loose financial conditions, the prospects for growth remain bright.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services