Widespread downgrades to office-based job forecasts

Our new forecasts for metro employment growth have prompted limited change in the rankings for total jobs over the next three years. But, there are two shifts, both owing much to recent and likely further cuts in the tech sector. First, we think 2023 could be the first year since 2009 in which office-based job growth does not outperform total job growth. And second, there are more substantive changes to our office-based forecasts, with Austin, Las Vegas and Phoenix all seeing a reduction in average annual growth in 2023-2025 of more than 1% per year.