While we got mortgage rates and lending roughly right in 2023, house prices fell by less than we expected as longer mortgage terms, strong demand from cash buyers, and tight supply came together to support them. There is little reason to think that these supports will evaporate in 2024. At the same time, demand from mortgaged buyers will strengthen as mortgage rates decline, so the housing market already looks on course to surprise to the upside again in 2024.
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