PM’s speech delivers less cake and more realism

On the basis of this week’s developments, an agreement on a transition deal by the March European Council meeting hangs in the balance. Meanwhile, the Brexit vision that the Prime Minister set out on Friday contained less “cakeism” than earlier speeches, and more realism, but could still be rejected by the EU as well as the more Eurosceptic members of the Conservative party.
Continue reading

More from Capital Economics Economist

Emerging Europe Economics Update

What should we make of Russia’s data revisions?

The upwards revisions to Russia’s industrial production figures have raised concerns about the quality of the data but, based on the figures released so far, the new series does seem to reflect economic conditions more accurately than the older series.

29 June 2018

Middle East Economics Update

Egypt rates on hold, easing cycle to resume in September

The Egyptian central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold (rather than lower rates) was a response to recently-announced subsidy cuts that will push up inflation. But the easing cycle is likely to resume at September’s MPC meeting. And we still think interest rates will, ultimately, be lowered by more than most analysts expect over the next couple of years.

28 June 2018

Energy Focus

Is the sun setting on the oil market?

Slowing economic growth and rapidly rising fuel efficiency, partly due to a surge in the number of electric vehicles, mean that growth in demand for oil will slow and eventually peak over the next twenty years. At the same time, plentiful oil reserves mean that supply should be ample. Indeed, the marginal cost of production is likely to fall as OPEC loses its pricing power and advances in shale technology force more expensive forms of production out of the market. As a result, we expect real oil prices to trend down over the next two decades.

28 June 2018
↑ Back to top