Pandemic recovery helped prevent recession

The UK avoided a recession last year partly because of more spending by households on restaurants and trains and partly because of more investment by businesses in aircraft, cars and cruise ships. This suggests the recovery from the pandemic cushioned the drags on real activity from high inflation and high interest rates. There may be similar effects this year, but our central view is that there will be a recession.

Subscriber content

Read this in full, free

Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.


Free. 10 articles. No card required.
By completing this form you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions for the provision of a free trial of Capital Economics' services. We take your privacy seriously and will not share your details with others without your consent. By providing your details, including your email address, you are consenting to Capital Economics sending you macroeconomic commentary and analysis. You can unsubscribe at any time. See our Privacy Policy for more information.

Already a client or trialist? Log in to read this.