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Monthly GDP & Trade (Jan.)

The 0.3% m/m rise in real GDP in January (consensus +0.1% m/m, CE +0.4% m/m) will raise hopes that the economy will escape a recession in 2023 and will increase calls for the Chancellor to splash the cash in his Spring Budget next Wednesday. But the rise in GDP is not as good as it seems so we doubt it will give the Chancellor much wiggle room. And with the full drag from high interest rates yet to be felt, our hunch is still that the economy will enter a recession later this year.

UK Drop-In (15th Mar.): Will the Spring Budget see Jeremy Hunt splash the cash or hold off until the election – or will new OBR forecasts tie the Chancellor’s hands? Register for our special 20-minute budget day online briefing with Neil Shearing, Paul Dales and James Reilly. Register Now. 

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