Will the pandemic help “to green” economies?

One silver lining of the pandemic may be to accelerate the transformation to a “green” global economy. The related investment could boost demand, and possibly potential growth, in those countries introducing green stimulus measures. But it seems unlikely to transform the outlook for global warming and prevent the damage to those – generally poorer – countries that will be most directly affected by climate change.
Vicky Redwood Senior Economic Adviser
Continue reading

More from The Long Run

Long Run Update

Are we on the way to a bigger state?

While it may take years or decades before the evidence is clear, there are tentative signs that the pandemic has accelerated a shift towards a bigger role for the state in advanced economies.

24 September 2021

Long Run Update

Implications of more extreme weather events

Climate change is already making extreme weather events more frequent and more intense, which will worsen as the planet warms further. This is most likely to cause short-term disruptions to economic growth in some EMs. What’s more, it could result in more volatile inflation in all economies if internationally traded commodities are affected more frequently.

6 September 2021

Long Run Update

What the S&P 500’s valuation may mean for future returns

Although the US stock market’s valuation is nearly as high now as it was at the height of dot com mania, we don’t expect the return from it to be as bad in the next decade as it was in the 2000s.

31 August 2021

More from Vicky Redwood

Long Run Focus

Global migration to bounce back

Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus from a big rise in the number of people leaving Africa over the coming decades. This could help to mitigate the problem of ageing populations in developed markets, although countries will continue to display varying degrees of openness to immigration.

15 June 2021

Global Economics Update

How concerning is the recent rise in inflation?

A rise in inflation was always likely to happen this year as economies re-opened and energy prices recovered from last year’s sharp falls. But in the US in particular, the increase since the start of the year has exceeded even our relatively strong expectations. While this might primarily reflect transitory factors, we continue to think that the risk of a sustained rise in inflation is bigger in the US than in other developed economies.

10 June 2021

Long Run Focus

Will we start working less?

The downward trend in average working hours in advanced economies has slowed or stalled in the past few decades. Yet there are reasons to think that the decline will resume, at least in some sectors and some countries. Other things equal, fewer hours worked would dent GDP. However, a reduction in working hours could boost participation and/or make workers more productive. As for the impact on the composition of economies, a rise in leisure time could give a boost to recreational sectors.

13 May 2021
↑ Back to top