Fears about the coronavirus outbreak have weighed on oil prices and clouded the near-term outlook for the Gulf countries. Lower oil prices and a possible deepening of oil production cuts will act as a headwind to growth in early 2020. But even if the virus is brought under control soon, we think that tight fiscal policy means any subsequent economic recovery will disappoint. Outside the Gulf, painful balance of payments adjustments lie in store in several countries. In Lebanon, this will come alongside a debt restructuring. Egypt will remain the region’s bright spot as fiscal and monetary policy are loosened.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services