The US-Iran ceasefire announced yesterday looks very fragile and there are major hurdles for both sides to overcome in upcoming talks to reach a lasting end to the war. If the war does end, that would deliver near-term support to the Gulf’s non-hydrocarbon sectors. But hydrocarbon production will take a long time to fully recover. And there will be lasting long-term effects, not least because security concerns in the Gulf will make diversification efforts harder.
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