The minutes to Copom’s meeting last week outlined a rosy outlook for economic growth, but the dire incoming data add to the reasons to think that the monetary tightening cycle will probably be shorter and smaller than most expect. Meanwhile, the decision by bondholders to take the Province of Buenos Aires to court is another example of the growing distance between Argentine policymakers and international creditors. This may be a sign of the likely tone of the debate about securing a new IMF deal (particularly ahead of October’s legislative elections) although, in the end, we suspect that economic pragmatism will prevail.
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