About 0.3%-pts of the 0.8%-pt contraction in Brazil GDP in Q3 can be chalked down to one-off effects stemming from a poor harvest and temporary disruptions to vehicle production. But the big story here remains the persistent weakness in consumer spending. We’re nudging down our forecasts for this year to -3.5% (from -3.0%) and next year to 1.0% (from 1.5%).
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