The states of emergency set to begin in four major prefectures on Sunday will knock back Japan’s economic recovery and should mean that output stagnates across the first half of 2021. While the declarations are only scheduled to last just over two weeks, they’re expected to include widespread business closure orders. Off the back of that, we’ve revised down our 2021 growth forecast. However, we’ve raised 2022 growth from 2.4% to 2.7%. That’s because we still expect vaccination to allow a full rebound in domestic activity by the end of the year. Indeed, the vaccine rollout is finally accelerating and should gather much more pace over the coming weeks.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services