The recovery in India’s exports over the past few months is due in large part (and somewhat surprisingly) to a rise in global oil prices as well as the strength of the rupee, which has boosted earnings in dollar terms. But these factors are unlikely to continue providing the same support. The underlying picture is less positive. In the absence of aggressive reforms to remove structural impediments to export growth, the government’s target of more than doubling exports from current levels by 2020 looks unrealistic.
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