Reasons for hope and despair

New infections in a handful of key states including Maharashtra now appear to be stabilising but, with the virus still spreading in almost every other part of the country, containment measures will probably need to be tightened further over the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the recent sharp slowdown in India’s vaccination drive is another dark cloud over the economic outlook.
Darren Aw Asia Economist
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India Data Response

Industrial Production (Apr.)

There is unlikely to be a clearer illustration of the distorting impact of base effects than the 134% y/y rise reported in Indian industrial production in April. Industrial output actually dropped in April as a second wave of infections hit activity. But the lockdown last year was far more severe than this year’s. Looking ahead, the economic recovery is also likely to be more gradual than that seen a year ago.

11 June 2021

India Economics Weekly

Monsoon puts a cloud over vaccine rollout

The monsoon season has begun in India and the extent of the rains has a significant impact on the incomes of hundreds of millions of families given the high level of employment in agriculture. A good monsoon can help to anchor food prices too. However, this year's monsoon risks holding back the economy if it adds to the logistical constraints facing the vaccine rollout.

11 June 2021

India Economics Update

Resilient remittances will aid the recovery

Remittance flows into India have been resilient in recent months and, with employment prospects for Indian migrants looking better than a year ago, they should continue to hold up well. That should provide some much-needed support for the economic recovery.

9 June 2021

More from Darren Aw

India Economics Update

Resilient remittances will aid the recovery

Remittance flows into India have been resilient in recent months and, with employment prospects for Indian migrants looking better than a year ago, they should continue to hold up well. That should provide some much-needed support for the economic recovery.

9 June 2021

India Economics Weekly

Lockdown extensions, industrial weakness

Several states have extended lockdowns this week even as new virus cases continue to plunge. With local governments taking a cautious approach to reopening, the economic recovery is likely to be more gradual than last year. However, this also reduces the threat of renewed outbreaks which could deal more severe blows to the economy.

4 June 2021

India Data Response

Services & Composite PMI (May)

India’s PMI readings for May adds to evidence elsewhere that the damage from the second virus wave has not been as severe as when the pandemic first struck last year. But with restrictions likely to be lifted slowly this time around, the recovery beyond the current outbreak looks set to be more gradual.

3 June 2021
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