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What are UK OIS really telling us about future BoE policy?

Even more caution than usual should be exercised when using UK overnight indexed swap rates to infer the expected path of Bank Rate over the next couple of years. This is because they have risen by far more than the yields of Gilts with comparable maturities at the short end of the curve.

In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Global Markets Update to clients of our UK Markets service.

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