We expect commodity currencies to remain under pressure

Although the currencies of most commodity exporters appear undervalued in the context of high commodity prices, we still think most commodity currencies will depreciate further against the US dollar.
Jonathan Petersen Markets Economist
Continue reading

More from FX Markets

FX Markets Update

Most signs point to further trouble for the Turkish lira

We expect the Turkish lira to remain among the worst-performing currencies over the next two years, as political pressures, high inflation, and a vulnerable external position continue to weigh on the currency.

22 October 2021

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

US dollar falls back as Treasury yields edge down

The US dollar seems set to end the week lower against most currencies, as “risky” assets have rallied and US Treasury yields have edged down a bit. This fall back in the dollar and US yields is somewhat surprising in light of the stronger-than-expected inflation data released Wednesday. But we think those data add to evidence that inflationary pressures in the US remain strong, and will gradually push Treasury yields, and the dollar, higher. And while this week’s rebound in risky assets suggests that concerns about the global economic recovery are fading, the latest activity data from China and the US (due on Monday) are likely to set the tone for FX markets next week.

15 October 2021

FX Markets Update

We don’t expect tapering to be a key driver of the US dollar

We doubt that the direct effects of the tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases will have much of an impact on the US dollar, and think that other factors will be more important in pushing the greenback higher.

15 October 2021

More from Jonathan Petersen

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar resumes its rally on the back of strong US data

The US dollar is ending the week higher against most currencies, extending its gains alongside rising US Treasury yields following the stronger-than-expected July payrolls data. With Fed officials earlier this week suggesting that several more months of strong economic data may be enough to start tapering asset purchases, next week’s US inflation data could reinforce expectations that policy normalisation may not be far off. Although we think that the pace of the economic recovery in the US will moderate in the coming quarters, our view is that the dollar will rally further as underlying growth and inflation in the US remain stronger than in most other major economies.

6 August 2021

Capital Daily

We think US real yields are unlikely to stay this low

The yields of long-dated US Treasuries have edged down this week, and those of TIPS have dropped to a new record low, but we still expect both to recover over the next couple of years.

28 July 2021

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

The FOMC announcement may extend the dollar rally

While the US dollar has fallen back a little against most currencies in the second half of the week as the sharp sell-off in risky assets and currencies on Monday was reversed, it looks set to end the week slightly stronger, continuing its strong run since the June FOMC meeting.

23 July 2021
↑ Back to top