While the US-China trade war has escalated, we had already expected the two countries’ dispute to deepen. Meanwhile, although a thawing of US-Iran relations could mean a return to the market of Iranian exports, this seems a long way off. As such, we see little in the events of recent days to warrant a revision to our forecast that the price of Brent crude will stabilise at around $60 per barrel by end-2019.
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