While the flare up in military activity in the Middle East does not change our forecast for oil prices to trend lower next year, the latest developments support our view that energy prices will experience bouts of volatility and upward pressure in H2 2026. One key risk is that the US follows Russia’s lead by banning its exports of oil products, which would remove one of the key buffers that has prevented oil prices from rising further since the start of the war.
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