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Weak economic activity in developed economies and a stronger dollar will temper gains in most commodity prices over the rest of the year. In oil markets, Saudi Arabia’s output cuts have kept supply constrained while demand in the US and China has held up. Natural gas markets have adjusted to Europe’s pivot from importing Russian pipeline gas to LNG, but prices should still tick up ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Demand for metals is likely to flounder without further policy support from China and prices probably won’t sustainably rise until 2024 when economic activity also picks up in developed economies and the US cuts interest rates. Meanwhile, the outlook for supply of most agriculturals has deteriorated and we now expect prices to stay higher for longer.
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