Export and import growth surged in y/y terms in January and February. Even accounting for favourable base effects, shipments look strong. Exports continued to be buoyed by stuck-at-home foreign consumers. And travel restrictions during the Chinese New Year holiday meant that many factories stayed open. Meanwhile, stockpiling of semiconductors and still resilient domestic demand kept imports ticking up. We think trade will remain resilient in the near-term but will soften later this year.
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