The recovery is set to go into reverse in December amid the latest coronavirus restrictions, and we now think GDP will stagnate over the first quarter. But the high effectiveness of the first COVID-19 vaccines increases the chance that economic activity will recover far more strongly over the rest of 2021 than we previously anticipated, and the government confirmed on Monday that it will support the recovery with an investment-focused stimulus. We therefore continue to expect GDP to grow by 5.0% in 2021 despite the much weaker start to the year, and have revised up our forecast for 2022 to 5.5%, from 4.2%.
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