Bank’s surveys imply GDP growth will remain weak

The key activity and labour market indicators in the Bank of Canada’s surveys did not deteriorate last quarter, but they remain consistent with weak GDP growth, rather than the pick-up the Bank is looking for. The weak results mean that, despite the earlier strong September Labour Force Survey release, market pricing has shifted back to implying that a 50bp cut is marginally more likely than another 25bp move later this month, although the CPI data next week could still swing things either way.