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The Treasury market still isn’t fully healed

Even though the 10-year Treasury yield is close to where it was before “Liberation Day”, measures of term premia remain elevated. At face value, that suggests that the yield could fall quite a bit further, but we suspect any unwind of the recent increase in term premia will be a slow and incomplete process that, in the near term, will be more than offset by the effects of the Fed delaying its rate cuts.

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