Bonds Update Limited scope for further US HY spread compression US high yield (HY) corporate bond spreads have narrowed, on net, since the Iran conflict began, and look extremely tight by past standards. We don’t think they will narrow much further over the rest... 22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update LatAm bonds to outperform if energy prices fall further If the Iran war eases and energy prices fall back further, we expect LatAm bonds to outperform, as monetary policy would be eased substantially in Brazil and, to a lesser extent, in Mexico. By... 21st April 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update EZ spreads won’t rise by much despite high debt levels A sustained re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz would probably mean euro-zone bond spreads narrow a bit further this year. What’s more, our base case is that spreads in Italy and France will remain... 20th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Treasuries’ hedging role is diminished, but not gone The recent return of a positive stock-bond correlation has raised questions about the role of bonds in a portfolio, such as the traditional “60/40”. We agree that their use as a hedge may have... 15th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Assessing the risks of another Gilt market meltdown Gilts have been under huge pressure since the start of the war in the Middle East and this Update sketches out how much more pressure they might come under if the war were to drag on. 30th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market traders bracing for prolonged disruption Extreme volatility in front-month oil prices has captured the headlines, but there have also been large moves in the shape of the oil futures curve and in the options market. As it stands, investors... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Limited signs of distress in financial markets amid Iran War While the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has led to a surge in volatility across most major asset classes, there are limited signs of distress in core money markets. That may change if the war... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Market implications of three scenarios for the conflict Growing optimism that the conflict in the Middle East will be severe but short-lived has been accompanied over the past 24 hours by some retreat in the price of oil and a partial unwinding of the big... 10th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz Following the effective “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of renewed conflict in the Middle East, this Update answers five key questions about the potential impacts on global energy... 2nd March 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Bonds Update AUS-NZ yield spread set to widen further We think the 10-year Australian government bond yield will reach 5% this year as the RBA hikes by more than investors anticipate. But we see less scope for yields to rise in New Zealand as the RBNZ is... 19th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update EM dollar bonds set to lose some of their shine EM dollar bond spreads are close to multi-year lows and we expect them generally to rise over the coming year or so. That informs our view that returns are set to be much poorer than they have been... 17th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What the “Starmer drama” means for Gilts and Sterling Keir Starmer appears to have fended off the latest challenge to his leadership, but his premiership hangs by a thread. This Update examines what previous political episodes can tell us about what his... 11th February 2026 · 5 mins read
