Bonds Update What long-run r* are investors pricing in? While market pricing already looks consistent with our view that r* will rise to around 2% in the US over the coming decade, a deeper look suggests that there is still room for investors’ rate... 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We’re now less upbeat on the yen, more on the TOPIX We now think the yen will appreciate a bit more slowly against the US dollar than we’d previously forecast, but we’re revising up our projections for Japan’s stock market. 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s? The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Has the threat from QT passed? Quantitative tightening has not been the main driver of higher bond yields in recent years, but it has contributed. With the process now at or near an end in the US and Canada, the threat that further... 9th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Fiscal fears likely to stay baked into Gilt yields We still think the 10-year Gilt yield will fall by the end of 2026 as the Bank of England cuts interest rates by more than investors seem to anticipate. But with term premia likely to remain elevated... 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: deficit breach could send bond spreads wider Concerns that Indonesia’s government will breach it’s 3% of GDP budget deficit rule have only grown after the replacement of respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani. While the fiscal risk premium in... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Key questions (and answers) on the turmoil in Indonesia This Update answers the key questions on recent developments in Indonesia and the implications for fiscal and monetary policy, as well as the country’s financial markets. We discussed many of these... 10th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update French PM's gambit will not end budget stalemate The French prime minister’s decision to call an early vote of confidence is most likely to trigger his replacement with yet another prime minister or (less likely) fresh legislative elections. Either... 26th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rally in EM financial markets slowing: what’s next? After a stellar performance in the first half of 2025, the emerging market (EM) asset rally has slowed over the past few weeks following US President Donald Trump’s new tariff announcements. While we... 14th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update On the severed bond between Swiss and German bonds We expect the Switzerland-Germany 10-year government bond yield spread to widen a little further, even though it’s already the largest it has been in about three decades. 12th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update French borrowing costs may soon exceed Italy’s We think France’s government borrowing costs will rise above those of Italy before long. This may seem surprising in light of Italy’s higher debt burden and lower trend growth rate, but it reflects... 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What’s next for China’s financial markets? While trade and overcapacity related risks remain, we see a bright outlook for China’s equities. But we expect a more challenging path for its bonds and currency over the remainder of the year. 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Will stablecoins move into the mainstream? In this Update, we answer the key questions about what stablecoins are, whether they will become more widely used and what implications they have for the US Treasury market. 8th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Bonds Update Another fiscal spanner in the works for gilts and sterling We still think gilts will rally over the rest of this year even if fiscal concerns don’t entirely abate, as the Bank of England cuts interest rates by more than investors seem to expect. But concerns... 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Narrowing of euro-zone spreads not as good as it looks While spreads in the euro-zone have narrowed further recently, nearing multi-year lows, this is mainly because underlying German Bund yields have risen. Indeed, public finances in some euro-zone... 13th June 2025 · 2 mins read
