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Australia Labour Market (Nov.)

The remarkable recovery in Australia’s labour market following the recent lockdowns suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia will end its asset purchases altogether in February.  
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

New Zealand - Budget boost will exacerbate inflationary pressures

While the government’s Budget was focused on equipping households to withstand surging living costs, by adding to demand we think it will cause inflation to be higher over the next year. That’s all the more reason for the RBNZ to continue hiking rates aggressively throughout this year.

20 May 2022

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Wage growth still set to approach 3% by year-end

While wage growth is set to reach 3% by the end of the year, this week’s labour market data didn’t contain any upside surprises that would convince the Reserve Bank of Australia to accelerate its hiking cycle at the upcoming meeting in June. Meanwhile, the opposition Labor party looks on track to win the federal election on Saturday. While Labor has only pledged slightly looser fiscal policy that would easily be offset by likely upward revisions to tax revenue, the party’s historical track record suggests that the budget deficit would shrink less rapidly than under the Coalition government over the coming years.

20 May 2022

RBNZ Watch

RBNZ to keep tightening aggressively

The New Zealand economy was running hot even when the Omicron variant was disrupting activity. Now that the peak of the Omicron wave has passed, mobility is rebounding and inflation expectations are rising even further. On that basis, we think the RBNZ will hike rates by another 50 bp at its meeting on 25th May 2022. And we still expect the RBNZ to hike rates at every meeting this year.

19 May 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Japan Economics Update

BoJ won’t join hawkish shift by other central banks

While central banks elsewhere are becoming increasingly hawkish, the Bank of Japan kept policy loose today and is set to remain among the most dovish central banks for the foreseeable future.

17 December 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia - Government yet to deliver pre-election spending boost

The government unveiled only modest increases in spending in today’s fiscal update. And while the unemployment rate has now reached levels where the Treasurer has pledged to start repairing the public finances, the government’s priority remains to support the economy amidst continued virus uncertainty. The upshot is that a genuine spending boost will still happen ahead of federal elections in May.  

16 December 2021

Japan Data Response

Tankan (Q4 2021)

The Q4 Tankan survey showed that the services sector has started to narrow the gap relative to manufacturing and we think that process has further to run.

13 December 2021
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