Recent declines in commodity prices will drag on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa this year. What’s more, growth in agriculture and mining during the commodities boom came at the expense of the manufacturing sector – the most reliable source of long-run growth in emerging markets. Accordingly, in the absence of another surge in commodity prices, we expect GDP growth of just 4% over the next few years, well below the average of more than 7% over the past decade.
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