South Africa GDP (Q2)

South Africa’s economy grew by a better-than-expected 1.2% q/q in Q2 as strong growth in exports made up for weak domestic demand. Tighter virus restrictions and violent unrest weighed on activity at the start of Q3 and the recovery is likely to be slow going from here on. This, combined with subdued inflation, means that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates later than most currently expect.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Economics Weekly

Ghana struggling with debt, oil price winners and losers

The sharp rise in Ghana’s sovereign dollar bond yields this month suggests that investors are coming around to our view about the country’s worrying debt trajectory. Meanwhile, the rebound in oil prices will, as usual, split Sub-Saharan African economies into winners and losers. But the region’s oil producers will probably not be able to reap the full benefits from higher prices.

22 October 2021

Africa Economics Update

Oil woes to hold back recoveries in Angola & Nigeria

Falling oil production has weighed on the Nigerian and Angolan economies, with the latter likely to suffer its sixth consecutive annual decline in GDP this year. While output should rise next year, we doubt that either will be able to meet its OPEC+ quota, preventing faster recoveries from taking hold in 2022.

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Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Although South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.0% y/y in September, soft underlying price pressures and a fragile economic recovery mean that policymakers will only normalise monetary policy gradually. By contrast, investors currently appear to expect a relatively aggressive tightening cycle.

20 October 2021

More from Jason Tuvey

Middle East Economics Weekly

OPEC+ on track, UAE eases restrictions with Expo in sight

This month’s OPEC+ meeting passed without much fanfare as the recent rebound in oil prices prompted the group to push ahead with raising oil output, which will help to lift the Gulf economies further. Meanwhile, the further fall in virus cases in the UAE in recent weeks has prompted officials to ease restrictions as the start of the World Expo nears, but the past week has also brought a reminder that Dubai’s troubles with its large corporate debts are far from over.

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Middle East Economics Update

Morocco’s recovery to surprise on the upside

Morocco’s strong vaccine rollout and a rebound in the agricultural sector will support a robust recovery over the coming quarters. Although a slow return of tourists and fiscal consolidation will act as headwinds, we still think that GDP growth will be stronger than most expect over 2021-23.

2 September 2021

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey GDP (Q2 2021)

A strong rebound from May’s three-week lockdown meant that Turkey’s economy managed to expand by 0.9% q/q over Q2 as a whole and the early signs are that it carried this momentum into Q3. Robust growth and high inflation mean the central bank will hold off cutting rates until late this year.

1 September 2021
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