Recently-released GDP figures show that growth strengthened in both Nigeria and South Africa in Q4. The pickup in growth in Nigeria was mostly due to stronger activity in the non-oil sector, which compensated for a softer performance from the oil industry. South Africa’s acceleration was due to strong consumer spending and a big jump in investment expenditure. Official figures from other economies are scarce, but surveys and activity data point to improved performances in Angola, Kenya, Zambia, and Rwanda at the end of last year. Conditions were probably weaker in Ghana and Botswana. The available figures for Q1 2018 point to a softer performance from South Africa, but a continued acceleration in Nigeria. We retain the view that growth across most key economies will exceed consensus expectations this year.
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