Global Economics Update Trade negotiations may be blocked for many more years It is twenty years since the last major multilateraltrade agreement was signed and there is no newdeal in sight. What’s more, the regionalTransatlantic and Trans-Pacific trade talks looklikely to drag... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are commodity prices signalling a global slowdown? The recent weakness in the prices of several key industrial commodities – notably oil and iron ore – hasunderstandably fuelled concerns that the world economy is on the cusp of a major downturn. But... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Scottish independence could encourage separatists worldwide From an economic point of view, it might be easier for some other regions with separatist movements to thrive as independent countries than it would be for Scotland. Few of them face the same... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are inflation expectations telling us? Measures of inflation expectations are unanimous in pointing to a growing risk of deflation in the eurozone.Meanwhile, the rise in inflation expectations in Japan suggests that the BoJ’s actions have... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK not the only country revising up its GDP figures The upward revision to its GDP figures may temporarily boost the UK’s position relative to otheradvanced economies. But other European economies and Japan will eventually make similar revisionsto... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global imbalances to remain below pre-crisis levels After narrowing abruptly in 2009, the world’s major current account imbalances rebounded between 2010 and 2012. This raised concerns that there could be a resumption of potentially destabilising... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Gulf between US and euro-zone widens further The global manufacturing PMI, published by Markit today, suggests that world GDP growth may pickup a bit further in the third quarter after rebounding in the second. But the imbalance between thefast... 2nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for wage inflation? With the important exception of the US, we expect wage inflation in the major advanced economies to remain subdued in the coming year or two, even as labour markets approach “full employment”. 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global economy too reliant on the US Preliminary business surveys for August, which were published by Markit today, suggest that growthcontinues to be sluggish in Japan and the euro-zone and that China’s economy is slowing. In contrast... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still loose Global monetary conditions have remained highly accommodative even though theUS Fed is now just a couple of months away from completing QE3. The latest senior loan officer surveys show that the demand... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are global growth fears overdone? The world economy does not appear to be heading for a major slowdown, despite the weak Q2 GDP data from the euro-zone and Japan and some softer monthly indicators from China. The most reliable survey... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Low inflation a threat to fiscal policy in the euro-zone and Japan Continued very low inflation is likely to have anegative impact on debt ratios in both Japan andthe euro-zone during the coming years. Insouthern euro-zone countries real interest rateswill probably... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing makes mixed start to Q3 Flash manufacturing PMIs published today indicate that the second-quarter rebounds in the US andChina have continued in July. But the euro-zone’s recovery still looks fragile and Japan is struggling... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia still the biggest loser from Western sanctions The direct effects on the European economy of any sanctions-related disruption to trade with Russiawould not be trivial but the impact via energy markets may be less than many fear. Sentiment could... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still easy Although the first US and UK interest rate hikes are now in sight, a combination offactors, including asset purchases by the Fed and BoJ and further policy easing bythe ECB, has caused global bond... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy able to cope with higher US interest rates We do not think the global recovery will be derailed by tighter US monetary policy during the comingtwo years. This is because the Fed is unlikely to raise rates aggressively, other central banks are... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
