Global Economics Update Global growth likely to pick up after weak first quarter Preliminary business surveys published today suggest that the pace of global growth in Q1 was little changed from the end of last year. But this is partly due to weather-related disruption in the US... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy should be able to cope with Fed tightening Concerns about the global impact of tighter Fed policy are likely to resurface later this year, but we think these worries are exaggerated. Even if rates are hiked, US monetary policy will remain... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update ECB QE should be a net positive for rest of the world Concerns about the possible negative side effects for the rest of the world from QE by the ECB look overdone. Admittedly, the appreciation of other currencies against the euro will be a headwind for... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is growth in the euro-zone about to outpace that in the US? Some indicators suggest that the euro-zone economy may grow faster than the US in Q1. But this is largely because unusually severe weather has hit US activity. While the euro-zone economy has gained... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we worry about dollar strength? The surge in the US dollar to multi-year highs has triggered many worries, including the threat to the US recovery, heightened risks of global deflation via the impact on commodity prices, and the... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Real rates to stay higher in the euro-zone than in US & Japan The ECB started its quantitative easing programme this week and the US Fed is likely to begin tightening policy in June. Nonetheless, we expect real interest rates to remain higher in the euro-zone... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What chance of progress with regional trade agreements? With the WTO talks stalled, hopes for significant progress in trade liberalisation are pinned on two large regional trade and investment pacts. As a result of renewed political pressures for an... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to a small pick-up in global growth Final manufacturing PMIs for February suggest that the pace of global growth has picked up a bit since the start of the year. The full impact of the drop in oil prices has yet to be felt and further... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global easing cycle not over yet There has been a wave of rate cuts across the world since the start of the year. And we expect monetary policy to be loosened further in a number of economies over the coming months. This should help... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Risk of “Grexit” casts a shadow over global growth prospects Preliminary business surveys published today suggest that activity has picked up a bit in the euro-zone and remained solid in the US. However, the Greek crisis poses a growing threat to the outlook. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would be the global fallout if Greece left the euro? If Greece is forced out of the single currency there would clearly be major political and economic implications for the euro-zone itself, and we suspect there would initially be turmoil in global... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How are lower oil prices affecting inflation? The drop in global oil prices since mid-2014 will push many advanced economies into deflation, but the trough will vary considerably between economies. And while inflation should rebound rapidly in... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are consumers spending their oil windfall? Although real household incomes among net consumers have been boosted by the fall in oil prices, this has yet to translate into a surge in spending. But we still expect consumption in advanced... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Don’t expect China, Russia or the US to save Greece Suggestions that China or Russia might come to Greece’s rescue are wishful thinking as it is not in the economic or political interests of either country to do so. Nor is it likely that the US will... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 powerless to contain Greece risk With Greece once more dominating the headlines, officials from the US and elsewhere are likely to have used the G20 meeting in Istanbul to urge euro-zone governments to do all they can to prevent the... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Which governments gain the most from lower bond yields? If they are sustained, the recent sharp falls in government bond yields will be most helpful for the fiscal positions of southern euro-zone countries such as Italy and Spain. But along with Japan... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
