Global Economics Update How significant is the slide in inflation expectations? Many measures of inflation expectations are at, or close to, record lows. We do not think this means that the world as a whole is heading for a long period of very low inflation, or even deflation... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global monetary policy set to be even looser for longer Following the FOMC meeting earlier this week, we have lowered our forecasts for the fed funds rate at the end of 2017 and 2018. But two key themes remain unchanged: global monetary policy will... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are PMIs still the most useful measures of global growth? Although it is far from perfect, the global manufacturing PMI published by Markit seems to be the most reliable timely indicator of the strength of the world economy. It currently suggests that global... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Prospects for consumer spending remain fairly bright Global growth fears have re-emerged in recent weeks, but we think that prospects are still reasonably bright. In particular, conditions are in place for a period of steady, if unspectacular, growth in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are central bankers going soft on their inflation targets? It is often claimed that central bankers are less committed to their inflation targets than they were before the global financial crisis, but a closer look suggests that there has not been a dramatic... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (May) The final purchasing managers surveys for May show that manufacturers are struggling almost everywhere. The global manufacturing PMI, published by Markit earlier today, edged down to 50.0, extending a... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary aggregates and credit continue to expand steadily For all the talk of a sharp slowdown in the global economy this year, broad money and credit have been growing at a steady pace. In advanced economies as a whole, credit has increased by around 5% y/y... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four reasons for (cautious) optimism on the world economy In their declaration earlier today, G7 leaders claimed that “global growth is our urgent priority”. Promoting growth is a worthwhile aim but the implication that the world economy is on the brink of a... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Five quick points on Brent at $50 The recovery in oil prices should be a net positive for the global economy but is not without its downsides, including the support it might provide to the hawks at the Fed. 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (May) Preliminary PMIs published by Markit today suggest that manufacturing activity in advanced economies eased in May. Indeed, it looks increasingly likely that economic growth in the euro-zone and Japan... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G7 finance ministers This weekend’s G7 finance ministers meeting in Sendai, Japan, is likely to focus on exchange rate and fiscal policy and to end with another warning about the dangers of Brexit. However, no major... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has the threat of deflation disappeared? Fears of deflation have eased since the beginning of the year as oil prices have rebounded and global growth has stabilised. However, the appreciation of the euro and yen and continued weakness of... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reduced scope to catch up will limit EM and global growth The rapid expansion of emerging economies (EMs) over the past decade or two has reduced the scope for further “catch-up” growth. Along with this, many EMs are likely to continue falling short of their... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is a pick-up in wage growth on the horizon? Employment growth in advanced economies has so far remained fairly resilient in the face of weaker global growth and we think labour markets will continue to tighten gradually in the coming months... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Manufacturing activity seems to have remained weak across the board at the start of the second quarter. Markit’s global manufacturing PMI, released today, slipped from 50.6 in March to 50.1 in April... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth edged up in Q1, and is set to recover further We estimate that global growth nudged up from 2.0% annualised in Q4 last year to 2.5% in Q1, largely due to a recovery in China. While there was a sharp decline in US GDP growth, its economy should... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
